基于时变风险调整的粮食产量保险费率厘定及福利效应研究  

Research on Grain Yield Insurance Rate-making and Its Welfare Effect Based on Time-varying Risk Adjustment

作　　者：李晓涛 牛贝贝 李士森[3] 任金政[1] LI Xiao-tao;NIU Bei-bei;LI Shi-sen;REN Jin-zheng

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院 [2]中国科学技术信息研究所 [3]石家庄铁路职业技术学院

出　　处：《农村金融研究》2020年第12期70-79,共10页Rural Finance Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(编号:71873129);北京市社会科学基金重点项目(编号:19GLA002);中国保险学会2020年年度研究课题项目(编号:ISCKT2020-N-1-08)的研究成果。

摘　　要：科学核定农业保险费率,建立与风险匹配的费率动态调整机制是农业保险高质量发展的客观要求。论文基于时变风险对粮食保险费率及参保福利影响的理论分析,构建费率调整和福利效应测算模型,对27省粮食作物和16130户次农户数据进行实证检验发现:17省的一种或多种粮食作物单产风险具有趋势时变特征,且有区域集聚性。其中小麦和水稻单产风险有减小趋势,费率受时变风险影响较大,而玉米有增大趋势,受影响较小。基于时变风险的费率调整对农户的参保率无影响,但对户均福利及其福利敏感性有显著影响,且省际差异明显。结论对于粮食风险动态评估、费率厘定以及农业保险的福利影响评价具有借鉴意义。Scientific verification of agricultural insurance premium rate and establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism of premium rate matching with risk are the objective requirements for the high-quality development of agricultural insurance.Based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of time-varying risks on grain yield insurance rate-making and it’s benefits,the paper constructs the model of rate adjustment and welfare effect calculation.Through the empirical test of 16130 households in 27 provinces,we found that the risk of yield per unit area of one or more grain crops in 17 provinces has the time-varying and regional agglomeration trend.Among them,the yield risk of wheat and rice per unit area has a decreasing trend,the rate is greatly affected by time-varying risk,while that of corn has an increasing trend,and the rate is less affected.The rate adjustment based on time-varying risk has no influence on the participation rate of farmers,but it has a significant influence on the welfare per household,and the welfare sensitivity of farmers to the rate adjustment is obviously different.

关 键 词：时变风险 粮食保险 费率厘定 福利效应 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] F842.66