Copula函数在水文水资源中的研究进展与述评  

Application of Copula functions in hydrology and water resources:a state-of-the-art review

作　　者：刘章君 郭生练[2] 许新发[1] 许世超 成静清[1] LIU Zhangjun;GUO Shenglian;XU Xinfa;XU Shichao;CHENG Jingqing(Jiangxi Provincial Institute of Water Sciences,Nanchang 330029,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省水利科学研究院,江西南昌330029 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水科学进展》2021年第1期148-159,共12页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51909112;51879192)。

摘　　要：Copula函数是一种灵活构造多变量联合分布和处理多变量问题的有效工具,在水文水资源领域应用广泛;随着研究的广度和深度不断推进,显示出其良好的适用性和不可替代的优越性。重点综述了近10年来Copula函数在水文事件多变量频率分析、水文事件遭遇组合分析、水文随机模拟、水文模型与预报以及其他问题中的最新应用研究进展与不足。从应用条件、参数估计、不对称性、拟合优选、尾部特性、多变量重现期选取、成果抽样误差等方面阐述了Copula函数应用需要注意的问题。展望了未来Copula函数在水文水资源领域应用中的研究重点和发展方向,为今后的研究提供借鉴和参考。Copula functions,which are flexible tools for the derivation of joint probability distributions,have been widely and effectively used to deal with multivariable analysis problems in the field of hydrology and water resources.Particularly in recent decades,this method has received great attention from researchers and engineers because of its advantages in multivariate analysis where the marginals of the data are not normally distributed.This paper provides a state-of-the-art review of the last decade of copula functions in multivariate hydrological frequency analysis,coincidence and combination analysis of hydrological events,hydrological stochastic simulation,and hydrological modeling and forecasting,etc.More specifically,application issues such as parameter estimation,variable asymmetry,fitting optimization,tail characteristics,multivariable return period selection,and sampling error are described.Finally,the key points and development direction of Copula functions in the field of hydrology and water resources are considered,which provides guidance for the application of this method in the future.

关 键 词：水文事件 COPULA函数 联合分布 条件分布 多变量分析 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]