CMIP5对东北地区气温评估和2℃/4℃升温阈值出现时间研究  

Assessment of Temperature and Time of 2℃/4℃Warming Threshold over Northeast China by CMIP5 Model

作　　者：王涛[1] 赵萌初 王乙舒[1] 周晓宇[1] 沈玉敏[1] 王小桃[1] 沈历都[1] WANG Tao;ZHAO Meng-chu;WANG Yi-shu;ZHOU Xiao-yu;SHEN Yu-min;WANG Xiao-tao;SHEN Li-du(Shenyang Regional Climate Center,Shenyang 110166,China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2021年第1期82-90,共9页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：第二次东北区域气候变化评估报告编制(CCSF202013、CCSF201910);辽宁省科技农业攻关及产业化项目(2015103038);辽宁省气象局科研项目(BA201606)。

摘　　要：利用全球气候模式、多模式集合和东北三省观测数据,评估了不同典型浓度路径下全球气候模式和多模式集合对东北区域气温变化模拟能力和可信度,结果发现最优模式模拟结果优于多模式集合,具有较高的可信度。2℃升温阈值结果分析表明:大部分地区首次稳定到达2℃阈值开始年份分别出现在2025年之前(RCP2.6),在2015年之前(RCP4.5)和在2033年(RCP8.5)之前;其中RCP2.6情景下出现最早,RCP8.5情景下最晚,各情景下大体呈西晚-东早分布形势。4℃升温阈值结果分析表明:随着情景增加,首次达到4℃阈值的年份呈提前趋势,其中RCP4.5下出现最早,大部分站点出现在2048年之前,RCP8.5下出现最晚,大部分站点出现在2073年之前。东北三省气温预估结果分析表明:东北三省未来气温呈同步一致变化特征,随着情景增加,各省升温速率均呈上升趋势。The global climate models,multi-model ensemble and observation of Northeast China were used to evaluate the temperature change simulation and credibility by global climate models and multi-model ensemble under different typical concentration paths.It is found that the performance of the optimal model in simulation is better than the multi-model ensemble and has higher credibility.The analysis of 2℃threshold shows the reaching and keeping over 2℃for the first time appears before 2025(RCP2.6),before 2015(RCP4.5)and before 2033(RCP8.5).Among them,RCP2.6 is the earliest and RCP8.5 is the latest,and it generally distributes west late and east early.The analysis of reaching and keeping over 4℃shows that the years reaching 4℃for the first time represent an early trend with the increase of the emission concentration.RCP4.5 is the earliest,and most stations reaching 4℃occur before 2048.RCP 8.5 is the latest,and most stations reaching 4℃occur before 2073.The results of temperature projection over Northeast China indicate that the temperature has characteristics of synchronous change over three provinces in the future.The rate of warming over all provinces shows an upward trend with the increase of scenario.

关 键 词：CMIP5模式 不确定性 预估 4℃阈值 2℃阈值 东北地区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]