近30年石羊河流域人口空间分布变化及其影响因素  

Changes of Population Spatial Distribution and Its Influencing Factors in Shiyang River Basin in Recent 30 Years

作　　者：高泽阳 常跟应[1] 王旭阳 吕嘉伟 GAO Zeyang;CHANG Genying;WANG Xuyang;LYU Jiawei(College of Earth and Enuironmental Sciences,Lanzhou Universily,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《福建师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第1期80-87,共8页Journal of Fujian Normal University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0501701);兰州大学“一带一路”专项项目(2018ldbryb028)。

摘　　要：以乡镇视角来研究石羊河流域的人口空间分布,有利于合理引导流域内人口的空间分布,使之与资源环境承载力相协调。基于人口密度、人口重心和空间相关分析方法,以1990、2000、2010、2016年石羊河流域5县区93个乡镇的户籍人口数据为基础,从乡镇尺度研究该流域人口空间的分布变化及其影响因素.研究表明:(1)近30a人口密度总体呈现波动上升趋势,大部分乡镇人口密度增加,但增加幅度随时间推移有所减缓,大致经历了较快稳定增长期、波动负增长期、低速平稳增长期.(2)人口分布保持正自相关趋势,同时人口随机分布的程度呈现波动变化,金川区、古浪县人口增长较多,分布较密集.(3)人口分布重心向西北方向移动,移动幅度较小,(3)人口密度的变化与气候变化关系不大,与水资源的配置存在正相关关系,人口密度的增加前期受水资源影响较大,后期主要受社会经济的影响.The study of the population spatial distribution in Shiyang River Basin from the perspective of towns is conducive to the reasonable population spatial distribution,making it compatible with the carrying capacity of resources and environment.Based on the household population data in 93 towns of 5 counties and districts of Shiyang River Basin in 1990,2000,2010 and 2016,this paper used population density,population center of gravity and spatial correlation analysis methods to analyze the spatial distribution changes of population and its influencing factors at the township scale.The results show that:(1)The population density of all towns and villages shows a general trend of rising fluctuation in the past 30 years,with most towns and villages increasing,experiencing a period of rapid and stable growth,negative fluctuation,and slow and steady growth.(2)The population distribution maintains a positive autocorrelation trend,while the degree of random population distribution fluctuates.Jinchuan district and Gulang county have a relatively large population growth and denser population distribution.(3)The center of population distribution moved to the northwest with a smaller movement.(4)The change of population density and climate change are not related,but there is a positive correlation between the allocation of water resources and population density.Generally,the increase of population density is greatly affected by water resources in the early stage,and the social economy in the later.

关 键 词：石羊河流域 人口空间分布 乡镇尺度 水资源配置 

分 类 号：K909[历史地理—人文地理学]