基于多目标决策分析的水资源承载力研究  

Research on Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Multi-objective Decision Analysis

作　　者：吴旭 刘彬[1] 刘杰 吴润泽 WU Xu;LIU Bin;LIU Jie;WU Run-ze(School of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China;Handan Hydrological Survey and Research Center of Hebei Province,Handan 056001,China;North China Municipal Engineering Design&Research Institute Co.,Lid.,Tianjin 300074,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学水利水电学院,河北邯郸056038 [2]河北省邯郸水文勘测研究中心,河北邯郸056001 [3]中国市政工程华北设计研究总院有限公司,天津300074

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2021年第1期42-45,9,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：河北省水利厅科研计划项目。

摘　　要：水资源承载力具有自然和社会双重属性,为描述水资源承载力与社会经济及生态环境之间的相互作用,构建了以水资源所能承载的国民生产总值最大、人口最多、污染物排放量最小为目标的水资源承载力多目标决策分析模型。同时,将快速非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)应用于水资源承载力多目标决策分析模型的求解,得到多目标最优Pareto前沿。将模型及算法应用于邯郸东部平原区水资源承载力评估,有效分析了该地区丰、平、枯水平年能承载的人口、经济、污染物排放量情况,得出的最优Pareto前沿可以辅助该地区规划水资源可承载的经济社会发展指标,具有重要的现实意义。Water resources carrying capacity has the dual attributes of nature and society.In order to describe the complex interaction between water resources carrying capacity and social economy and ecological environment,a multi-objective decision-making analysis model of water resources carrying capacity was constructed with the largest gross national product,the largest population carried and the smallest pollutant emission as the goal.Fast non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm(NSGA-Ⅱ)was applied to solve the model,and the multi-objective optimal Pareto frontier was obtained.The model and algorithm were applied to the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in the eastern plain of Handan,which effectively analyzed the population,economy and pollutant emissions that can be carried by the region in wet,normal and dry years.The obtained optimal Pareto front can assist the planning of economic and social development indicators that the water resources can be born,which has important practical significance.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 多目标决策分析 NSGA-Ⅱ算法 邯郸东部平原区 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]