Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals:a modeling study in Hubei Province,China  

作　　者：Ze-Yu Zhaou Qi Chen Bin Zhao Mikah Ngwanguong Hannah Ning Wang Yu-Xin Wang Xian-Fa Xuan Jia Rui Mei-Jie Chu Shan-Shan Yu Yao Wang Xing-Chun Liu Ran An Li-Li Pan Yi-Chen Chiang Yan-Hua Su Ben-Hua Zhao Tian-Mu Chen 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics,School of Public Health,Xiamen University,Xiamen City,Fujian Province,4221-117 South Xiang’an Road,Xiang’an District,Xiamen,Fujian Province,People's Republic of China [2]不详

出　　处：《Infectious Diseases of Poverty》2020年第2期102-102,共1页贫困所致传染病（英文）

摘　　要：Background:Developing countries exhibit a high disease burden from shigellosis.Owing to the different incidences in males and females,this study aims to analyze the features involved in the transmission of shigellosis among male(subscript m)and female(subscript f)individuals using a newly developed sex-based model.Methods:The data of reported shigellosis cases were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2017.A sex-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered(SEIAR)model was applied to explore the dataset,and a sex-age-based SEIAR model was applied in 2010 to explore the sex-and age-specific transmissions.Results:From 2005 to 2017,130770 shigellosis cases(including 73981 male and 56789 female cases)were reported in Hubei Province.The SEIAR model exhibited a significant fitting effect with the shigellosis data(P<0.001).The median values of the shigellosis transmission were 2.3225×10^8 for SARmm(secondary attack rate from male to male),2.5729×10^8 for SARmf 2.7630×10^8 for SARfm,and 2.1061×10^8 for SARff.The top five mean values of the transmission relative rate in 2010(where the subscript 1 was defined as male and age<5 years,2 was male and age 6 to 59 years,3 was male and age>60 years,4 was female and age<5 years,5 was female and age 6 to 59 years,and 6 was male and age>60 years)were 5.76×10^8 forβ61;5.32×10^8 forβ31,4.01×10^8 forβ34,7.52×10^9 forβ62,and 6.04×10^9 for Conclusions:The transmissibility of shigellosis differed among male and female individuals.The transmissibility between the genders was higher than that within the genders,particularly female-to-male transmission.The most important route in children(age<5 years)was transmission from the elderly(age>60 years).Therefore,the greatest interventions should be applied in females and the elderly.

关 键 词：SHIGELLOSIS TRANSMISSIBILITY Mathematical model GENDER 

分 类 号：R378.25[医药卫生—病原生物学]