异质和不完备信息下调水工程险情级别判定  

Decision of dangerous situation level for water transfer project with heterogeneous and incomplete information

作　　者：杨帅[1] 陈文龙[1] 王葳[1] 王佳俊[1] 任炳昱[1] 吴斌平[1] YANG Shuai;CHEN Wenlong;WANG Wei;WANG Jiajun;REN Bingyu;WU Binping(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2020年第12期195-203,共9页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0405006);国家自然科学基金(51679165);国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401806)。

摘　　要：针对当前长距离调水工程突发险情等级判定多采用实数形式的完备判断矩阵进行决策,无法解决决策信息异质和决策信息不完备问题的不足,提出了基于连续区间有序加权几何(continuous ordered weighted geometric,C-OWG)算子和鲸鱼优化算法(whale optimization algorithm, WOA)处理异质不完备信息的应急响应级别判定方法。首先,构建基于C-OWG算子的异质残缺判断矩阵处理模型,弥补现有方法难以处理应急决策过程中同时存在的精确数、区间数和模糊数等异质偏好信息的不足。然后,耦合鲸鱼优化算法进行残缺判断矩阵填充,建立耦合C-OWG算子和WOA优化方法的应急响应级别判定模型,提高经典决策方法对不完备信息的处理能力,并避免信息填充过程中易陷入局部最优的缺陷。最后,采用层次聚类方法对群体专家意见进行集成,实现异质和不完备信息下长距离调水工程突发险情等级的高效判定。通过将所提方法应用于某调水工程渠道破坏的应急响应级别判定,验证了其合理性和可行性。Aiming at the deficiency that the decision of the level of suddenly occurred dangerous situation of long-distance water transfer project is mostly made with complete judgment matrix in real number form and then the problem that the information for the decision-making is heterogeneous and incomplete cannot be solved at present, a method for the decision of the emergency response level, which can process the heterogeneous and incomplete information, is put forward herein on the basis of the continuous ordered weighted geometric(C-OWG) operator and the whale optimization algorithm(WOA). At first, a C-OWG operator-based heterogeneous incomplete judgment matrix processing model is established for making up the deficiency that the heterogeneous preference information, such as crisp number, interval number, fuzzy number, etc., simultaneously existed during the emergency decision-making process is difficult to be processed. Afterwards, the model is coupled with the whale optimization algorithm(WOA) for filling the incomplete judgment matrix to establish the emergency response level decision model coupled with both the C-OWG operator and WOA for enhancing the incomplete information processing capacity of the classical decision-making method and avoiding the defect of easily falling into local optimum in the process of information filling. Finally, the efficient decision of the suddenly occurred dangerous situation level of long-distance water transfer project with the heterogeneous and incomplete information is realized through integrating group expert opinions with the hierarchical clustering method. Through the application of the proposed method to the decision of the emergency response level of the channel damage of a water transfer project, its reasonability and feasibility are verified.

关 键 词：应急响应 险情级别判定 鲸鱼优化算法 不完备信息 异质信息决策 长距离调水工程 

分 类 号：TV68[水利工程—水利水电工程]