国际移民对母国经济的影响--基于汇款中介效应的实证分析  

Influence of International Emigration on Economic Development of Home Countries:Empirical Analysis Based on Mediating Effect of Personal Remittance

作　　者：王颖 姚宝珍 WANG Ying;YAO Bao-zhen(School of Government,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学政府管理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《经济问题》2021年第1期23-31,共9页On Economic Problems

摘　　要：移民是全球化进程中不可忽视的人口流动现象,对母国(移民输出国)经济会产生重要影响。基于对乐观主义学派和悲观主义学派观点之争的回顾,分析认为观点差异可能源自不同国家和地区的现实背景差异。采用164个国家跨国移民数据,通过构建双向固定效应模型对不同收入水平的国家进行分组实证分析,验证了悲观主义学派的观点,并考察了移民通过汇款对母国经济发展的中介效应。研究表明,移民通过个人汇款对母国经济发展产生显著正向促进作用,但难以抵消移民外迁带来的负面影响;当母国经济发展水平较高时,移民的负面效应更为显著。与此同时,移民会加剧高收入国家的收入不平等以及低收入国家的通货膨胀率。Emigration is a noticeable phenomenon of world population flow during the globalization process,which has important impact on the economic growth of the home country.Based on the literature review of the arguments between optimist and pessimist school on emigration’s economic effect of the home countries,we propose that different viewpoints may originate from the different reality background.The paper uses the international migration data of 164 countries,and make a grouped empirical analysis with countries of different income levels through a two-way fixed effects model,verifying views of the migration pessimism school and examining the mediating effect of emigration’s role in the economic development of the home countries.The study has shown significant impact of emigrants to their home countries through personal remittances,but which is difficult to offset the negative impact of emigration to economy development.The home country develops more well,the negative effects of emigration are more significant.Also,emigration will increase income inequality of upper-middle income countries,but reduce income inequality of middle-income countries and inflation of low-income countries.

关 键 词：国际移民 母国经济 移民汇款 中介效应 

分 类 号：F830.73[经济管理—金融学]