Global dynamic spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza since 2009 influenza pandemic  

作　　者：Zhi-Wei Xu Zhong-Jie Li Wen-Biao Hu 

机构地区：[1]School of Public Health and Social Work&Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation,Queensland University of Technology,Brisbane,Australia [2]Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation,Queensland University of Technology,Brisbane,Australia [3]School of Public Health,Faculty of Medicine,University of Queensland,Brisbane,Australia [4]Division of Infectious Disease,Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing,China

出　　处：《Infectious Diseases of Poverty》2020年第1期55-63,共9页贫困所致传染病（英文）

基　　金：We’d like to thank World Health Organization for making the FluNet data publicly available.Dr.Wenbiao Hu was supported by an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship(award number FT140101216).

摘　　要：Background:Understanding the global spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza is essential for influenza control and prevention.Available data on the updated global spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza are scarce.This study aimed to assess the spatiotemporal pattern of seasonal influenza after the 2009 influenza pandemic.Methods:Weekly influenza surveillance data in 86 countries from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from FluNet.First,the proportion of influenza A in total influenza viruses(PA)was calculated.Second,weekly numbers of influenza positive virus(A and B)were divided by the total number of samples processed to get weekly positive rates of influenza A(RWA)and influenza B(RWB).Third,the average positive rates of influenza A(RA)and influenza B(RB)for each country were calculated by averaging RWA,and RWB of 52 weeks.A Kruskal-Wallis test was conducted to examine if the year-to-year change in PA in all countries were significant,and a universal kriging method with linear semivariogram model was used to extrapolate RA and RB in all countries.Results:PA ranged from 0.43 in Zambia to 0.98 in Belarus,and PA in countries with higher income was greater than those countries with lower income.The spatial patterns of high RB were the highest in sub-Saharan Africa,Asia-Pacific region and South America.RWA peaked in early weeks in temperate countries,and the peak of RWB occurred a bit later.There were some temperate countries with non-distinct influenza seasonality(e.g.,Mauritius and Maldives)and some tropical/subtropical countries with distinct influenza seasonality(e.g.,Chile and South Africa).Conclusions:Influenza seasonality is not predictable in some temperate countries,and it is distinct in Chile,Argentina and South Africa,implying that the optimal timing for influenza vaccination needs to be chosen with caution in these unpredictable countries.

关 键 词：Influenza a Influenza B SEASONALITY Spatial pattern VACCINATION 

分 类 号：R511.7[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]