基于气候预测的大广坝水库汛期气候最优化调度经济效益探讨  

Economic Benefits of Climate Optimal Operation of Daguangba Reservoir in Flood Season Based on Climate Prediction

作　　者：胡德强[1,2] 易灵伟 朱晶晶 邢彩盈 HU Deqiang;YI Lingwei;ZHU Jingjing;XING Caiying(Hainan Meteorological Bureau,Hainan Climate Center,Haikou,Hainan 570203,China;Hainan Key Laboratory for South China Sea Meteorology and Disaster Mitigation,Haikou,Hainan 570203,China)

机构地区：[1]海南省气象局气候中心,海南海口570203 [2]海南气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海南海口570203

出　　处：《热带农业科学》2020年第12期111-116,共6页Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture

基　　金：2017年海南省自然科学基金(No.417297);海南省气象局技术提升(No.HNQXJS201804)。

摘　　要：分析海南省大广坝水库流域近30年的降水分布特征,利用连续数量预报数学模型,计算大广坝水库汛期理论最佳蓄水量;结合水库前期降水及长期降水特征,采用气候预测结论值,对汛期理论最佳蓄水量进行气候预测订正,确定水库气候最优化蓄水方案;综合蓄、放水风险及效益两方面评价指标,构建基于气候最优化蓄水方案的水库经济效益评价体系,并选择2018年为例,定量化评估气候预测对水库经济效益的影响。结果表明:2018年汛期期间内,采用气候预测结论进行气候最优化调度,比按气候平均值方法进行调度,可多蓄水4005.7万m3,预计减少损失260.92万元;2018年汛期实际为大广坝水库多蓄水0.8亿m3,合计减少损失520万元。说明该方法具有一定的科学性及实用价值,能为水库调度优化提供科学的参考依据。Theoretical optimum storage of Daguangba Reservoir in Hainan Province in the flood season was calculated by using the continuous forecast mathematical model based on the analysis of the distribution characteristics of precipitation in the Daguangba watershed of Hainan Province over the past 30 years.Based on the characteristics of the early stage and long term precipitation of the reservoir,the theoretical optimal water storage in flood season was revised by using the climate prediction to determine the optimal water storage scheme for the reservoir.Based on the evaluation indexes of risk and benefit of water storage and drainage,an economic benefit evaluation system for the reservoir based on the optimal water storage scheme derived from the climate prediction was established to quantitatively assess the effect of climate prediction on the reservoir economic benefit by using the climate data in the year 2018.The results showed that during the flood season of 2018 the reservoir saved 40.057 million cubic meters of water and was expected to reduce the loss by 2.692 million yuan theoretically when the climate prediction was used for climate optimal reservoir operation as compared with the method of climate average value.In fact Daguangba Reservoir saved 80 million cubic meters of water and reduced the loss by 5.2 million yuan in the flood season of 2018,indicating that this method was of some practical values and could provide scientific reference for reservoir optimal operation.

关 键 词：大广坝水库 气候预测 气候最优化 经济效益 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]