基于灰色-马尔科夫链的区域物流需求预测  

REGIONAL LOGISTICS DEMAND FORECAST BASED ON GREY-MARKOV CHAIN

作　　者：吴玉国[1] 李晓迪 WU Yu-guo;LI Xiao-di(School of Management Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Technology,Ma’anshan 243032,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院,安徽马鞍山243032

出　　处：《南阳理工学院学报》2020年第6期1-5,共5页Journal of Nanyang Institute of Technology

摘　　要：针对区域物流需求量问题,构建灰色马尔科夫组合预测模型进行研究。在灰色GM(1,1)模型的基础上应用马尔科夫链确定系统状态并形成转移矩阵,最终获得物流需求量预测值。结果表明:灰色预测的结果平滑性较好,可以有效反映出物流需求量整体变化趋势,但其拟合程度不高,马尔科夫链预测方法可以较好弥补这一不足。以南京市2010年至2019年公路货运周转量为基础数据进行仿真,为南京市相关政府部门及企业制定物流规划决策提供参考依据。Aiming at the problem of regional logistics demand,a grey Markov combination forecasting model was built.In grey GM(1,1)model on the basis of the application of markov chain to determining the system status and transfer matrix is formed,finally obtain logistics demand forecast.The results show that the gray prediction is smooth and can effectively reflect the overall trend of logistics demand,but its fitting degree is not high,and the Markov chain prediction method can better make up for this deficiency.Based on the road freight turnover of Nanjing city from 2010 to 2019,the simulation was carried out to provide reference for relevant government departments and enterprises in Nanjing city to make logistics planning decisions.

关 键 词：需求预测 灰色理论 马尔科夫链 公路货运周转量 

分 类 号：U4-9[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]