城市轨道交通PPP项目客流预测思路及关键技术研究  

Research on Passenger Flow Forecasting Ideas and Key Technologies of Urban Rail Transit PPP Project

作　　者：王静 杨超 王俊 刘海旭 Wang Jing;Yang Chao;Wang Jun;Liu Haixu(Beijing Urban Construction Design and Development Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100161)

机构地区：[1]北京城建设计发展集团股份有限公司,北京市100161

出　　处：《建设科技》2020年第23期111-113,116,共4页Construction Science and Technology

摘　　要：当前,多个城市的轨道交通项目采用PPP模式进行建设及运营,客流预测数据是政府与社会投资人的谈判基础,直接影响各方对未来客运收入、政府补贴水平的预期和判断。本文通过对比工程可行性研究阶段和PPP阶段对客流指标的使用需求,提出了PPP阶段客流预测内容及指标要求,探讨了轨道交通PPP阶段客流预测模型和清分模型中涉及的关键技术,并给出轨道交通特许经营期全周期客运量及票务测算的计算方法,完善和补充了客流预测工作体系,为轨道交通PPP工作提供借鉴和参考。Currently,PPP mode is adopted for the construction and operation of rail transit projects in many cities.Passenger flow forecasting data is the basis for the negotiation between the government and social investors,which directly affects the expectation and judgment of all parties on the future passenger revenue and government subsidy level.In this paper,by comparing the demand of passenger flow index in the feasibility study stage and PPP stage for the use of the passenger flow indicators,we put forward the content and indicator requirements of passenger flow prediction at the PPP stage,and discusses the key technologies involved in the passenger flow prediction model and the tickets income distribution model of the PPP stage.And then,the passenger flow volume and calculation method of tickets income distribution in the whole cycle of rail transit franchise period have been proposed,and the working system of passenger flow forecasting has been improved and supplemented.The research will provide references for the rail transit PPP projects.

关 键 词：PPP 客流预测 轨道交通 票款收入 招商引资 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]