1.5℃温升目标下中国碳排放路径研究  

Research on China’s carbon emissions pathway under the 1.5℃target

作　　者：王克[1] 刘芳名 尹明健 刘俊伶 WANG Ke;LIU Fang-Ming;YIN Ming-Jian;LIU Jun-Ling(School of Environment&Natural Resources,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Tsinghua-Berkeley Shenzhen Institute,Tsinghua University,Shenzhen 518055,China;School of Economics and Management,Harbin Institute of Technology(Shenzhen),Shenzhen 518055,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学环境学院,北京100872 [2]清华大学清华-伯克利深圳学院,深圳518055 [3]哈尔滨工业大学(深圳)经济管理学院,深圳518055

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2021年第1期7-17,共11页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“1.5℃目标约束下中国能源技术系统高精度与双向能流反馈建模研究”(72004043);能源基金会项目“中国煤电成本分析与风险评估”(G-1910-30513);深圳市“应对气候变化与低碳经济学科建设”项目(深发改[2018]725号)。

摘　　要：《巴黎协定》提出1.5℃目标以及中国2060年前达到碳中和的目标背景下,为研究实现1.5℃目标的技术路径,构建了综合性的能源-经济-环境系统模型,研究中国在2℃情景基础上实现1.5℃目标的额外减排要求、部门贡献和关键减排措施。结果显示,1.5℃情景要求到2050年CO2排放量减少到6亿t。一次能源消费总量2045年达峰,峰值控制在68亿tce。能源结构实现大幅度优化,非化石能源占比达到67%,煤炭比例下降到16%。与2℃情景相比,2015—2050年1.5℃情景需要额外累积减排380亿t CO2,额外减排量主要来自电力部门。在减排措施方面,额外减排主要来自新型低碳能源与生物质能结合碳捕集与封存(BECCS)技术。不同部门的主要减排措施存在差异,电力部门更多依赖BECCS等减排技术以实现较大幅度负排放,是实现1.5℃目标路径的关键因素。工业部门主要依赖能效提高。建筑和交通部门则更多依赖终端能源结构调整,氢能在其中发挥了较大作用。Under the 1.5℃target of the Paris Agreement and China’s goal of achieving carbon neutrality before 2060,a comprehensive energy-economy-environment system model has been established to explore China’s additional emission reductions,sector contributions and key emission reduction measures to achieve 1.5℃emission pathway based on 2℃emissions scenarios.The results show that the 1.5℃scenario requires carbon emissions to be reduced to 0.6 Gt CO2 by 2050,total primary energy consumption to peak at 6.8 Gtce in 2045,and the energy structure to be significantly optimized,with non-fossil energy accounting for 67%and coal proportion dropping to 16%.Compared with 2℃,1.5℃requires an additional cumulative emission reduction of 38.0 Gt CO2,and the additional emission reduction mainly comes from the power sector.In terms of emission reduction measures,the additional emission reduction mainly comes from new low carbon energy and Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage(BECCS)technology.The emission reduction measures are different by sector.The power sector relies more on BECCS and other emission reduction technologies to achieve a relatively large negative emission,which is the key to achieve the 1.5℃target path.The industrial sector still relies heavily on energy efficiency.The construction and transportation sectors are more dependent on the adjustment of terminal energy structure in which hydrogen energy plays a greater role.

关 键 词：1.5℃目标 CO2排放 减排路径 自下而上模型 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]