基于SEM-SD模型的农户土地托管行为决策机制研究  

Decision-Making Research on Farmers’Land Trusteeship Behavior Based on SEM-SD Model

作　　者：刘洪彬[1] 李顺婷 吴岩[1] LIU Hongbin;LI Shunting;WU Yan(College of Land and Environment,Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang 110866,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学土地与环境学院,辽宁沈阳110866

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2020年第12期78-86,共9页China Land Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72074153,71503174);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L18BJY006);辽宁省经济社会发展研究课题(20201s1ktyb-077);沈阳市青年科技创新人才支持计划项目(RC170180);沈阳市社会科学规划项目(SYSK2018-02-02)。

摘　　要：研究目的:探究农户土地托管行为的决策机制及其发展趋势,为提高土地利用效率,实现小农户与现代农业有机衔接提供政策依据。研究方法:结构方程模型和系统动力学模型相结合。研究结果:(1)农户土地托管行为决策符合计划行为理论(TPB)的分析框架,兼具“诱导性”和“抑制性”双重逻辑;(2)农户土地托管意愿是产生土地托管行为的主要动力,农业经营情况是遵循“抑制性”效应负向影响农户土地托管行为决策的重要系统,农户土地托管认知是遵循“诱导性”效应正向影响农户土地托管行为决策的有效系统;(3)“务农热情→耕种土地→规模经营→提高农业收入→刺激务农热情”闭合回路是抑制农户土地托管行为的底层逻辑,认知的“诱导性”效应从长期来看作用效果有限,且存在时滞性,需求“抑制性”效应将对农户行为起主导作用。研究结论:缩小农户需求与服务供给之间的差距,充分发挥村集体的信息传播与组织协调能力,解决农户土地托管顾虑是未来土地托管健康发展的重要基石,也为政府制定引导小农户与现代农业有机衔接的政策提供依据。The purposes of this paper are to explore the decision-making mechanism and development trend of farmers’land trusteeship behavior and to provide the policy-making basis for improving land use efficiency and achieving the organic connection between small farmers and modern agriculture.The research methods include structural equation model and system dynamics model.The results indicate:1)farmers’land trusteeship behavior follows the analytical framework of planned behavior theory with“inductive”and“inhibitory”dual logic.Farmers’land trusteeship willingness is the main driving force for land trusteeship behavior.Agricultural management is an important negative system following the“inhibition”effect,and farmers’land trusteeship cognition is an effectively positive system following the“induction”effect,affecting farmers’willingness.2)The closed loop of“enthusiasm for farming→cultivating land→moderate scale operation→increasing the proportion of agricultural income→stimulating the enthusiasm for farming”is the underlying logic of restraining farmers’land trusteeship behavior,the“inductive”effect of cognition is limited in the long-term with a time lag.Moreover,the“inhibitory”effect will play a leading role in farmers’land trusteeship behavior.In conclusion,for the proper development of land trusteeship,it is necessary to narrow the gap between farmers’needs and service supply,use village collective for information dissemination and organizational coordination,and resolve farmers’concerns about land trusteeship.These findings also provide the basis for the government to formulate policies to guide the organic convergence of small farmers and modern agriculture.

关 键 词：土地托管 农户决策行为 计划行为理论 结构方程模型 系统动力学模型 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]