悬浮式深水炸弹综合防御鱼雷作战仿真系统确认方法  

Accreditation Method for Integrated Anti-torpedo Combat Simulation System of Suspended Depth Charge

作　　者：孙慧玲[1,2] 胡伟文 宋业新[1] 张磊潇[3] 刘彩霞 SUN Huiling;HU Weiwen;SONG Yexin;ZHANG Leixiao;LIU Caixia(Department of Basic Courses,Naval University of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,Hubei,China;School of Weaponry Engineering,Naval University of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,Hubei,China;Unit 92730 of PLA,Sanya 572000,Hainan,China;Department of Basic Courses,Air Force Early Waring Academy,Wuhan 430019,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学基础部,湖北武汉430033 [2]海军工程大学兵器工程学院,湖北武汉430033 [3]92730部队,海南三亚572000 [4]空军预警学院基础部,湖北武汉430019

出　　处：《兵工学报》2020年第12期2523-2529,共7页Acta Armamentarii

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71171198);军事类研究生资助项目(XT19E2154)。

摘　　要：为解决悬浮式深水炸弹综合防御鱼雷作战仿真评估确认问题,建立舰艇生存概率的数学模型,根据仿真系统输出的拦截概率和规避概率样本数据,结合模型计算得到生存概率的样本值。针对生存概率样本的高维、海量等特性,提出将多重假设检验应用于作战仿真系统确认的思路,建立评估多重假设检验功效的Power模型以及计算生存概率样本p-值的p-value模型,给出模型中关键指标的求解步骤。根据p-value模型求解得到该仿真系统的各项重要评估指标值,对系统进行评估确认。研究结果表明,多重假设检验对仿真系统确认更严格,并且在控制第一类错误方面明显优于传统假设检验。A mathematic model of survival probability of navel ships is established for integrated anti-torpedo simulation evaluation and confirmation of suspended depth charge.The sample values of survival probability are calculated from the sample data of interception probability output of simulation system.In view of the characteristics of high dimension and large number of survival probability samples,an idea of applying multiple hypothesis test to simulation system validation is proposed.A power model for evaluating test efficacy and a model for calculating p-value of survival probability samples are established,and the steps to solve the key indicators in the model are given.The important evaluation index values of the simulation system were obtained,and the system was evaluated and confirmed.Research results show that the multiple hypothesis test is more strict for the confirmation of simulation system,and it is better than traditional hypothesis test in controlling the first kind of errors.

关 键 词：悬浮式深水炸弹 综合防御 鱼雷作战 仿真系统 生存概率 多重假设检验 

分 类 号：E925.25[军事—军事装备学]