Evaluating the probability of silent circulation of polio in small populations using the silent circulation statistic  

作　　者：Celeste Vallejo Carl A.B.Pearson James Koopman Thomas J.Hladish 

机构地区：[1]Mathematical Biosciences Institute,The Ohio State University,Jennings Hall 3rd Floor,1735 Neil Ave.,Columbus,OH 43210,United States [2]Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology&Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease,London School of Hygiene&Tropical Medicine,United Kingdom [3]South African Centre for Epidemiological Modeling and Analysis,Stellenbosch University,South Africa [4]Very Good Research&Development,LLC,United States [5]Department of Epidemiology,University of Michigan,1415 Washington Heights,Ann Arbor,MI 48109,United States [6]Emerging Pathogens Institute,University of Florida,P.O.Box 100009,2055 Mowry Road,Gainesville,FL 32610,United States [7]Department of Biology,University of Florida,220 Bartram Hall,P.O.Box 118525,Gainesville,FL 32611,United States

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2019年第1期239-250,共12页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：This research was supported in part by a National Institutes of Health/National Institute of General Medical Sciences Grant(https://www.nih.gov/,U54 GM111274);in part by the Mathematical Biosciences Institute and the National Science Foundation under grant DMS 1440386.

摘　　要：As polio-endemic countries move towards elimination,infrequent first infections and incomplete surveillance make it difficult to determine when the virus has been eliminated from the population.Eichner and Dietz[American Journal of Epidemiology,143,8(1996)]proposed a model to estimate the probability of silent polio circulation depending upon when the last paralytic case was detected.Using the same kind of stochastic model they did,we additionally model waning polio immunity in the context of isolated,small,and unvaccinated populations.We compare using the Eichner and Dietz assumption of an initial case at the start of the simulation to a more accurate determination that observes the first case.The former estimates a higher probability of silent circulation in small populations,but this effect diminishes with increasing model population.We also show that stopping the simulation after a specific time estimates a lower probability of silent circulation than when all replicates are run to extinction,though this has limited impact on small populations.Our extensions to the Eichner and Dietz work improve the basis for decisions concerning the probability of silent circulation.Further model realism will be needed for accurate silent circulation risk assessment.

关 键 词：Silent circulation Silent circulation statistic POLIO 

分 类 号：O17[理学—数学]