What could re-infection tell us about R0? A modeling casestudy of syphilis transmission  

作　　者：Joshua Feldman Sharmistha Mishra 

机构地区：[1]Centre for Urban Health Solutions,St.Michael's Hospital,University of Toronto,Canada [2]Department of Medicine,Division of Infectious Disease,University of Toronto,Canada [3]Institute of Health Policy,Management and Evaluation,Dalla Lana School of Public Health,University of Toronto,Canada [4]Institute of Medical Sciences,University of Toronto,Canada

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2019年第1期257-264,共8页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：The study was supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health ResearchGrant FN 13455.

摘　　要：Many infectious diseases can lead to re-infection.We examined the relationship between the prevalence of repeat infection and the basic reproductive number(R0).First we solved a generic,deterministic compartmental model of re-infection to derive an analytic solution for the relationship.We then numerically solved a disease-specific model of syphilis transmission that explicitly tracked re-infection.We derived a generic expression that reflects a non-linear and monotonically increasing relationship between proportion reinfection and R0 and which is attenuated by entry/exit rates and recovery(i.e.treatment).Numerical simulations from the syphilis model aligned with the analytic relationship.Re-infection proportions could be used to understand how far regions are from epidemic control,and should be included as a routine indicator in infectious disease surveillance.

关 键 词：RE-INFECTION Basic reproductive number Compartmental model SYPHILIS Dynamical system 

分 类 号：R75[医药卫生—皮肤病学与性病学]