Pushing past the tipping points in containment trajectories of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)epidemics:A simple arithmetic rationale for crushing the curve instead of merely flattening it  

作　　者：Gerry F.Killeen 

机构地区：[1]School of Biological,Earth&Environmental Sciences,and Environmental Research Institute,University College Cork,Ireland

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2020年第1期362-365,共4页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：This study was supported by an AXA Research Chair award to the author,kindly provided by the AXA Research Fund,and by Irish Aid,Deparment of Foreign Affairs and Trade,Government of Ireland through the Embassy of Ireland in Tanzania(Award number IA-TAN/2020/086).

摘　　要：Countries with ambitious national strategies to crush the curve of their Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)epidemic trajectories include China,Korea,Japan,Taiwan,New Zealand and Australia.However,the United States and many hard-hit European countries,like Ireland,Italy,Spain,France and the United Kingdom,currently appear content to merely flatten the curve of their epidemic trajectories so that transmission persists at rates their critical care services can cope with.Here I present a simple set of arithmetic modelling analyses that are accessible to non-specialists and explain why preferable crush the curve strategies,to eliminate transmission within months,would require only a modest amount of additional containment effort relative to the tipping point targeted by flatten the curve strategies,which allow epidemics to persist at supposedly steady,manageable levels for years,decades or even indefinitely.

关 键 词：Coronavirus COVID SARS2 Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 SARS-CoV-2 Model Epidemiology Outbreak ZOONOSIS Emerging infection 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]