Predict new cases of the coronavirus 19;in Michigan,U.S.A.or other countries using Crow-AMSAA method  

作　　者：Yanshuo Wang 

机构地区：[1]Data Mining and Reliability Consultant,LLLW LLC Inc.,P.O Box 25124,Lansing,MI,48909,USA

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2020年第1期459-477,共19页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：The author appreciates the data which provided by website in reference(WorldOMeters).(Click On Detroit News,2020)and(New York City Gov);The author thanks my friend KevinWeiss who is working as principal quality engineer at ZF to edit this paper,and also thanks the Fulton Findings company to provide the SuperSmith package.

摘　　要：Statistical predictions are useful to predict events based on statistical models.The data is useful to determine outcomes based on inputs and calculations.The Crow-AMSAA method will be explored to predict new cases of Coronavirus 19(COVID19).This method is currently used within engineering reliability design to predict failures and evaluate the reliability growth.The author intents to use this model to predict the COVID19 cases by using daily reported data from Michigan,New York City,U.S.A and other countries.The piece wise Crow-AMSAA(CA)model fits the data very well for the infected cases and deaths at different phases during the start of the COVID19 outbreak.The slope b of the Crow-AMSAA line indicates the speed of the transmission or death rate.The traditional epidemiological model is based on the exponential distribution,but the Crow-AMSAA is the Non Homogeneous Poisson Process(NHPP)which can be used to modeling the complex problem like COVID19,especially when the various mitigation strategies such as social distance,isolation and locking down were implemented by the government at different places.

关 键 词：COVID19 Prediction Modeling Crow-AMSAA NHPP Infected cases DEATHS 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]