中国五市房地产市场泡沫存在状况对比分析  

Comparative analysis of the real estate bubbles in five cities of China

作　　者：刘梦伟 周雪 耿进强 LIU Mengwei;ZHOU Xue;GENG Jinqiang

机构地区：[1]河北经贸大学 [2]河北地质大学

出　　处：《经济论坛》2020年第12期148-152,共5页Economic Forum

摘　　要：以房价收入比、房地产开发投资占GDP的比重、房价增长率/CPI增长率这三个指标对中国四个直辖市与一个强一线城市的深圳就近十年的数据进行了分析。基于各指标泡沫临界点进行了对比,得出深圳、北京、上海房地产市场有明显泡沫,其中深圳较为严重。重庆、天津房地产市场也存在泡沫,但泡沫相对较弱。整体来看,均处于可控状态,不会引起经济危机。最后,对防止泡沫过度膨胀提出了建议。After 10-plus years of rapid development of China's real estate market,the real estate bubble has be⁃come the focus of discussion.This paper analyzes the data of four municipalities directly under the central govern⁃ment and Shenzhen as a strong first-class city in recent ten years with the three indicators of the ratio of housing price to income,the proportion of real estate development investment to GDP,and the growth rate of housing price/CPI.Based on the comparison of the bubble critical points of each index,it is concluded that the real estate market in Shenzhen,Beijing and Shanghai has obvious bubbles,of which Shenzhen is more serious.There are also bubbles in the real estate market in Chongqing and Tianjin,but the bubbles are relatively weak.On the whole,they are in a controllable state and will not cause economic crisis.Finally,some suggestions for preventing excessive bubble ex⁃pansion are put forward.

关 键 词：房地产泡沫 临界值 房地产市场 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]