基于三点估计法的直流配电中心概率潮流计算  

Research on Probability Load Flow Calculation of DC Distribution Center Based on Three-Point Estimate Method

作　　者：赵真 袁旭峰[1,2] 邹晓松 熊炜[1] 徐玉韬[2] 谈竹奎 ZHAO Zhen;YUAN Xufeng;ZOU Xiaosong;XIONG Wei;XU Yutao;TAN Zhukui(School of Electric Engineering,Guizhou University,Guiyang 550025,Guizhou Province China;Guizhou Electric Power Research Institute,Guiyang 550002,Guizhou Province China)

机构地区：[1]贵州大学电气工程学院,贵州省贵阳市550025 [2]贵州电网有限公司电力科学研究院,贵州省贵阳市550002

出　　处：《现代电力》2021年第1期1-7,共7页Modern Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51667007);贵州省科学技术基金项目([2019]1128)、([2018]5615)。

摘　　要：分布式电源呈间歇性/波动性,负荷呈随机性,利用概率统计理论研究基于不确定性量的电力系统规划、运行与控制已成为当前的研究热点。针对近年来不断增加的以风电、光伏为代表的分布式电源接入柔性直流配电网的现象,开展了概率潮流研究。以Nataf变换方法结合Cholesky分解进行不确定变量的相关性处理,提出了一种计及输入变量相关性的三点估计法的柔性直流配电网概率潮流计算方法;以国内首个五端柔性直流配电示范工程—直流配电中心作为算例,建立了基于三点估计法的统一直流概率潮流计算模型,计算结果验证了该算法的有效性和合理性。Distributed generation possesses intermittence and fluctuation as well as its load has the characteristics of randomness.At present,the probabilistic statistical theory based study on the power grid planning,operation and control becomes current research hotspots.In recent years the distributed generation represented by wind power generation and photovoltaic(PV)generation is connected into flexible DC distribution network increasingly,so it is necessary to research the probabilistic load flow.By means of Nataf transform combining with Cholesky decomposition,the correlative processing of uncertain variables was performed,and a method to calculate the probabilistic load flow in flexible DC distribution network by the three-point estimate method,which took the correlation of input variables into account,was put forward.Taking the first domestic five-terminal flexible DC distribution demonstration project,namely the DC distribution center,as calculation example,a three-point estimate method based unified DC probabilistic power flow calculation model was established.The effectiveness and rationality of the proposed algorithm are verified by calculation results.

关 键 词：直流配电中心 概率潮流 三点估计法 统一直流潮流模型 分布式电源 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]