基于熵权物元的大型水利工程项目风险评价研究  

Study on Risk Assessment of Large Water Conservancy Projects Based on Entropy Weight Element

作　　者：崔春生[1] 翟婷 刘云鸽 席筱宁 张文结 CUI Chun-sheng;ZHAI Ting;LIU Yun-ge;XI Xiao-ning;ZHANG Wen-jie(College of Computer and Information Science,Henan University of Finance and Economics,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]河南财经政法大学计算机与信息学院,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2021年第1期47-55,共9页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：河南高校创新人才基金面上项目“河南省高校科技创新人才支持计划”(17HASTIT018)。

摘　　要：大型水利工程项目是典型的复杂系统工程,为了准确预测大型水利工程风险等级,降低事故风险,论文从管理、技术、经济、政策、环境五个方面选取影响水利工程项目风险的14个指标,建立了水利工程项目风险评价指标体系.借助熵权法确定各项指标的权重,分析影响项目风险的主要因素,之后利用物元分析理论定量评价项目的风险状况.通过分析可知:跨国项目中,政策风险占比重最大;偏远地区,经济风险占比最高;管理风险与技术风险的权重在各个项目中接近且稳定.The large water conservancy project is a typical complex system engineering,in order to accurately predict large water conservancy project risk level,reduce the accident risk,the paper from the management,technology,economy,policy,environment five aspects affect the risk of water conservancy projects selected 14 indicators,established a risk evaluation index system of water conservancy project.The entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of each index,and the main factors affecting the project risk are analyzed.It can be seen from the analysis that policy risks account for the largest proportion in transnational projects.Remote areas,the highest proportion of economic risk;the weight of management risk and technical risk is close to and stable in each project.

关 键 词：水利工程项目 风险评价 物元 熵权法 

分 类 号：TV51[水利工程—水利水电工程]