基于模糊灰理论的ZPW-2000A轨道电路风险评估  

Risk Assessment of ZPW-2000A Track Circuit Based on Fuzzy Grey Theory

作　　者：李德威 宰祥卫 张胜 孙彤 褚俊英[1] 刘志萍[1] LI Dewei;ZAI Xiangwei;ZHANG Sheng;SUN Tong;CHU Junying;LIU Zhiping(Rail Transit Institute,Beijing Jiaotong University Haibin College,Huanghua 061199,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学海滨学院轨道交通学院,河北黄骅061199

出　　处：《郑州大学学报（工学版）》2020年第6期73-78,共6页Journal of Zhengzhou University（Engineering Science）

基　　金：河北省自然科学基金专项项目(E2016513016);河北省高等教育教学改革研究与实践项目(2019GJJG639)。

摘　　要：针对传统铁路信号设备风险分析时存在的数据少、信息量小、精度不高等缺陷,在故障模式影响风险分析(FMECA)的基础上,结合模糊数理论,综合应用灰关联度法、变权综合法,提出了基于模糊灰理论的风险评估方法。该方法将模糊理论与灰理论结合起来,有效降低了对设备大量故障数据的依赖;与传统风险优先级指数(RPN)相比,通过引入变权原理将具有相同RPN值的风险识别出来。以ZPW-2000A轨道电路为例,分析了其重要设备各故障模式及对应的风险等级,并进行了灰排序。结果表明:基于模糊灰理论的风险评估方法得出的风险优先级指数(RPN)等级比传统方法得到的RPN更精细,这种方法很好地识别出了其两大信号故障升级模式,而传统方法只能识别出一种。所提出的方法对风险识别更具有有效性。Considering the lack of data,poor information and low precision in the risk analysis of traditional railway signal equipment,The fuzzy number theory was introduced in this paper based on the failure mode effects and criticality analysis( FMECA),introduction. The application of grey correlation degree method,and the variable weight comprehensive method proposes were integrated into this risk assessment method based on the fuzzy gray theory. This method combined fuzzy theory and gray theory,could effectively reduce the dependence on a large amount of equipment failure data. Compared with the traditional risk priority index( RPN),the risk with the same RPN value could be identified by introducing the variable weight principle. Taking the ZPW-2000 A track circuit as an example,the failure modes of its important equipment and the corresponding risk levels were analyzed,and the gray ranking was performed. The results showed that the risk priority index( RPN) level obtained by the risk assessment method based on fuzzy gray theory was more refined than that obtained by the traditional method( RPN). This method could well identify its two major signal failure escalation modes. The traditional method could only identify one of them. Therefore,the method proposed was more effective for risk identification.

关 键 词：模糊数理论 变权综合法 风险评估 灰排序 

分 类 号：U284[交通运输工程—交通信息工程及控制]