川藏铁路工程物资供应保障策略的系统动力学仿真研究  

System dynamic simulation of material supply support strategy of Sichuan-Tibet railway project

作　　者：谢洪涛 卢睿 刘文荐 郑俊巍[4] 张云华[4] XIE Hongtao;LU Rui;LIU Wenjian;ZHENG Junwei;ZHANG Yunhua(Faculty of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China;Wuhan Railway Electrification Bureau Group Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430074,China;China National Railway Group Co.,Ltd.,Engineering Management Center,Beijing 100844,China;Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650500 [2]中铁武汉电气化局集团有限公司,湖北武汉430074 [3]中国国家铁路集团有限公司工程管理中心,北京100844 [4]昆明理工大学建工学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2021年第1期250-258,共9页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71942006,71761021,71941015);高速铁路轨道技术国家重点实验室开放课题(2019YJ198)。

摘　　要：川藏铁路工程建设所需物资运距远、运量大、风险高,物资供应保障需要综合考虑道路和仓储的可靠性问题。分析川藏铁路物资供应的特点及关键影响因素,采用系统动力学方法构建包括物资供应、施工进度、施工技术等3个子系统的物资供应保障模型,对3种组合策略进行了仿真分析。研究结果表明:构建的系统动力学模型可靠有效,路网和物资转运基地相互配合可有效提高物资运输的可靠性,工地物资库存量与工程进度动态挂钩有利于减少工程窝工。Material supply of Sichuan-Tibet railway project possesses the characteristics of high-hazard, long transportation distance and high volume. The reliability of road and storage need to be taken into account in material supply strategy. The characteristics and key influencing factors of material supply of Sichuan-Tibet railway project were analyzed. A system dynamic simulation model of material supply assurance system integrating four subsystems, including material supply, construction schedule and construction technology, was developed. The portfolio strategy of three key influencing factors which were road grade, material transfer base and material reserves in construction site, was simulated. The result shows that the inter-relation of factors within the material supply assurance system in line with the actual situation. The model can effectively simulate the material supply support strategy of Sichuan-Tibet railway project. The mutual complementation of road network and material transfer base can help to improve reliability of material supply system effectively. The dynamic link of stock of goods in site warehouse and construction schedule is in favor of reducing engineering slowdown.

关 键 词：川藏铁路 物资供应 可靠性 系统动力学 

分 类 号：C935[经济管理—管理学]