全面二孩政策下儿科诊疗工作量时间变化趋势研究  

Temporal Trends Analysis of Pediatric Workload Under the Universal Two-child Policy Background

作　　者：周欢[1] 胡莎莎[1] 单佳妮[1] 杨廷忠 梁建凤[1] 沈美萍[1] 汪天林[1] ZHOU Huan;HU Sha-sha;SHAN Jia-ni(Children’s Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine/National Clinical Research Center for Child Health,Hangzhou,Zhejiang,310052,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学医学院附属儿童医院·国家儿童健康与疾病临床医学研究中心浙江,杭州310052 [2]浙江大学公共管理学院,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《中国医院管理》2021年第2期47-51,共5页Chinese Hospital Management

基　　金：浙江大学医学院卫生政策与医院管理研究专项课题(2019WSZC011)。

摘　　要：目的以全面二孩政策为背景,结合时间序列分析方法,探索儿科诊疗工作量的变化规律并提供政策建议。方法收集某省级三甲儿童医院HIS 2012—2018年月门诊量和住院量数据,导入Excel 2010中观察2012—2018年度变化情况,计算1—12月季节指数;导入SPSS16.0中绘制时间序列图、构建自回归滑动平均混合(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型,分析预测模型的拟合度。结果 2012—2018年门诊量和住院量均逐年增长,年均增长率分别为9.59%和10.80%。门诊最高峰为12月、最低峰为2月,住院最高峰为8月、最低峰为2月。门诊量模型为ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0),住院量模型为ARIMA (1,1,0)(0,1,1),其预测结果与实际值平均绝对百分比误差分别为6.64%和5.36%。结论全面二孩政策后门诊从"暑期就诊高峰"逐步转为"冬季就诊高峰",儿科医疗资源较短缺问题逐年加剧。管理者需结合诊疗规律,结合ARIMA模型等时间序列方法科学预测评估资源缺口,做好统筹规划。Objective To explore the pattern of pediatric workload with time series analysis method,and provide suggestions under the universal two-child policy background.Methods Calculating the annual growth rate and the seasonal index of outpatient and inpatient visits from 2012 to 2018.Importing data into SPSS16.0 to draw time series diagram and construct ARIMA model,and analyzing the fitting degree prediction mode.Results The number of outpatient and inpatient visits increased with an average annual growth rate of 9.59%and 10.80%respectively.The peak of outpatient visits was December,the low peak was February;the peak of inpatient visits was August,the low peak was February.ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0),and ARIMA(1,1,0)(0,1,1)were used to predict the amount in2018.The mean absolute percentage error of ARIMA models were 6.64%and 5.36%,respectively.Conclusion Temporal trends of pediatric workload before and after the universal two-child policy is different,in which outpatient service gradually changes from"summer peak"to"winter peak".The shortage of pediatric medical resources is increasing.Hospital managers need to scientifically predict and evaluate the resource gap with time series methods,so as to make overall planning.

关 键 词：时间序列 门诊量 住院量 全面二孩政策 

分 类 号：R197.323.2[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]