城镇化、第三产业与房价互动关系研究——基于省际面板数据的PVAR模型分析  

Research on interaction between urbanization,tertiary industry and housing price:PVAR model analysis based on provincial panel data

作　　者：陈蕊 CHEN Rui(Department of Investment & Economics, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 102488, China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学投资经济系,北京102488

出　　处：《沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第1期65-72,共8页Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金面上项目(1908085MG232)。

摘　　要：建立2004—2017年中国省际面板数据的PVAR模型,探究城镇化、第三产业和房价的互动关系,并进行实证研究。结果表明:三者之间确实存在完整、连贯的互动关系。一方面,城镇化水平提升促进了第三产业发展,第三产业发展抑制了房价上涨;同时,城镇化发展进程对房价上涨具有正面影响。另一方面,房价上涨推动了第三产业发展,第三产业发展则抑制了城镇化进程;此外,房价对城镇化水平提升的影响为正。The PVAR model is established of the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2017 in China,the interaction between urbanization,tertiary industry and housing prices is explored,and empirical research is conducted.The results show that the three do have a complete and coherent interaction.On the one hand,the improvement of urbanization level promotes the development of tertiary industry,and the development of tertiary industry restrains the rise of housing prices.At the same time,the developing process of urbanization has positive effects on the rise of housing prices.On the other hand,the rise of housing prices promotes the development of tertiary industry,while the development of tertiary industry restrains the process of urbanization.In addition,the impact of housing prices on urbanization level is positive.

关 键 词：城镇化 第三产业 房价 面板数据 面板向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F29[经济管理—国民经济]