Surface Temperature Changes Projected by FGOALS Models under Low Warming Scenarios in CMIP5 and CMIP6  

作　　者：Shang-Min LONG Kai-Ming HU Gen LI Gang HUANG Xia QU 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting,Ministry of Natural Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China [2]College of Oceanography,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China [3]State key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics and Center for Monsoon System Research,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2021年第2期203-220,共18页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41706026 and 41831175);the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2017YFA0604600,2016YFA0601804 and 2018YFA0605702);the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant Nos.2018B04814 and 2018B03114);the open fund of the State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics,Second Institute of Oceanography(Grant No.QNHX 1808);the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB955600).

摘　　要：To meet the low warming targets proposed in the 2015 Paris Agreement,substantial reduction in carbon emissions is needed in the future.It is important to know how surface climates respond under low warming targets.The present study investigates the surface temperature changes under the low-forcing scenario of Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP2.6)and its updated version(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,SSP1-2.6)by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System(FGOALS)models participating in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6,respectively).In both scenarios,radiative forcing(RF)first increases to a peak of 3 W m^−2 around 2045 and then decreases to 2.6 W m^−2 by 2100.Global mean surface air temperature rises in all FGOALS models when RF increases(RF increasing stage)and declines or holds nearly constant when RF decreases(RF decreasing stage).The surface temperature change is distinct in its sign and magnitude between the RF increasing and decreasing stages over the land,Arctic,North Atlantic subpolar region,and Southern Ocean.Besides,the regional surface temperature change pattern displays pronounced model-to-model spread during both the RF increasing and decreasing stages,mainly due to large intermodel differences in climatological surface temperature,ice-albedo feedback,natural variability,and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation change.The pattern of tropical precipitation change is generally anchored by the spatial variations of relative surface temperature change(deviations from the tropical mean value)in the FGOALS models.Moreover,the projected changes in the updated FGOALS models are closer to the multi-model ensemble mean results than their predecessors,suggesting that there are noticeable improvements in the future projections of FGOALS models from CMIP5 to CMIP6.

关 键 词：surface temperature low warming targets Arctic amplification AMOC Southern Ocean 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]