基于地面分钟雨量数据的湖北省短时强降水时空分布特征分析  

Analysis of temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of flash heavy rain in Hubei Province based on minute rain gauge data

作　　者：冷亮[1] 周伶俐 肖艳姣[1] 王珏[1] 吴栋桥 LENG Liang;ZHOU Lingli;XIAO Yanjiao;WANG Jue;WU Dongqiao(Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research,Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meteorological Administration,Wuhan 430205;Wuhan Regional Climate Center,Wuhan 430074)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,武汉430205 [2]武汉区域气候中心,武汉430074

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2021年第1期61-68,共8页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1507201);科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506021)。

摘　　要：基于湖北省地面加密自动站2010—2015年的分钟雨量数据,利用滑动累积的小时雨量识别短时强降水事件,对比分析了鄂东南、鄂东北、武汉、江汉平原、鄂西北和鄂西南等六个预报区域的短时强降水日数、频次的时空分布特征,并对极端短时强降水进行初步探讨。结果表明:(1)短时强降水年均日数有明显的局地特征,强降水中心主要集中在鄂东南、鄂东北、武汉、鄂西南等区域;月变化呈显著单峰型特征,峰值在7月。(2)短时强降水的频次分布也具有明显的月变化和日变化特征。从月变化上看,江汉平原、鄂东南呈双月峰值分布(6月和7月),武汉和鄂东北地区的主峰在7月、次峰在6月,鄂西北和鄂西南地区的主峰在7月、次峰在8月;从日变化上看,鄂西北(04时和19时,北京时,下同)、鄂西南(01时和17时)、鄂东北(08时和16时)、鄂东南(07时和16时)呈双峰分布,江汉平原呈单峰分布(07时),武汉呈多峰分布(07—14时)。(3)极端短时强降水阈值范围为53~124.8 mm,具有夜发性特征,峰值在午后15时到凌晨01时,空间分布较为零散,相对而言,武汉地区观测到极端短时强降水的可能性最大,鄂西南和鄂西北最小。Based on the minute rainfall data of the surface dense automatic stations in Hubei Province from 2010 to 2015,this paper identifies the flash heavy rain events(hereafter FHR)by using the sliding accumulative hourly rainfall,and compares and analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the FHR days,frequencies in six forecast regions,namely,southeastern Hubei,northeastern Hubei,Wuhan,Jianghan Plain,Northwestern Hubei and southwestern Hubei,and then briefly discusses the extreme FHRs.The results show that:(1)The annually averaged FHR days have obvious local characteristics,and the heavy precipitation centers are mainly concentrated in southeastern,northeastern,Wuhan,southwestern and other regions.The monthly change shows a significant single peak feature with the peak in July.(2)The frequency distribution of FHR also has obvious monthly and diurnal variation characteristics.The monthly distributions of peak values are different in different regions with double-peaks(June-July)in Jianghan Plain and southeastern Hubei,the main peak in July and the second peak in June in Wuhan and northeastern Hubei,and the main peak in July and August in Northwest and southwestern Hubei.In addition,the diurnal variations of the FHR frequency have different characteristics with double-peaks in northwestern Hubei(04∶00 BT and 19∶00 BT),southwestern Hubei(01∶00 BT and 17∶00 BT),northeastern Hubei(08∶00 BT and 16∶00 BT),and southeastern Hubei(07∶00 BT and 16∶00 BT),single-peak in Jianghan Plain(07∶00 BT),and multi-peaks in Wuhan(from 07∶00 BT to 14∶00 BT).(3)The threshold range of extreme FHRs is from 53 mm to 124.8 mm,and its time-varying trait with statistical regularity with high nocturnal occurrence(from 15∶00 p.m.to 01∶00 a.m.).The spatial distribution is scattered with higher occurrence in Wuhan and lower occurrence in northwestern and southwestern Hubei.

关 键 词：短时强降水 加密自动站 时空分布 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]