基于熵权-云模型的水电工程施工进度风险评价  

Risk Assessment of Hydropower Project Construction Schedule Based on Entropy Weight-Cloud Model

作　　者：赵贤晨 贾立敏[1] ZHAO Xian-chen;JIA Li-min(College of Economics and Management,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443000,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学经济与管理学院,宜昌443000

出　　处：《价值工程》2020年第36期118-120,共3页Value Engineering

基　　金：三峡大学水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室开放基金项目“基于不完全契约水利水电工程治理”(2014KSD09)。

摘　　要：水电工程的施工进度的不可预见性和随机性较大,引发的进度风险会影响整体施工质量。针对这一问题,引入熵权-云模型的评价方法,基于水电工程施工的资金风险、自然环境风险、技术风险、组织风险和政策风险5个方面的因素选取18个指标对水电工程施工进度风险进行评价。该方法对指标赋权后可通过逆向云发生器计算云数字特征,然后通过近似法构建评价云,将评价结果以云图的形式直观展现。将该方法应用于工程实例,评价结果为中风险,符合施工现场情况,验证了该方法的适用性与有效性。The unpredictability and randomness of the construction schedule of hydropower projects are large,and the risk of the schedule will affect the overall construction quality.To solve this problem,the entropy-cloud model evaluation method is introduced,and 18 indexes are selected to evaluate the construction schedule risk of hydropower projects based on the five factors of capital risk,natural environment risk,technical risk,organizational risk and policy risk.After the index is weighted by this method,the digital characteristics of the cloud can be calculated by reverse cloud generator,and then the evaluation cloud can be constructed by approximation method,and the evaluation result can be visually presented in the form of cloud map.The method is applied to an engineering example,and the evaluation result is medium risk and conforms to the construction site condition,which verifies the applicability and effectiveness of the method.

关 键 词：施工进度 风险评价 云模型 熵权法 

分 类 号：TV512[水利工程—水利水电工程]