人民币汇率波动对中韩贸易影响的实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Volatility on Sino-Korean Trade

作　　者：李圣华[1] 穆舒 LI Sheng-hua;MU Shu(College of Economis and Management,Yanbian University,Yanji,Jilin,133002)

机构地区：[1]延边大学经济管理学院,吉林延吉133002

出　　处：《东北亚经济研究》2021年第1期62-76,共15页Northeast Asia Economic Research

基　　金：吉林省教育厅重点项目“长吉图地区跨境经济合作研究”(JJKH20191162SK);吉林省社会科学基金项目“吉林省企业对朝投资研究”(2019B35)。

摘　　要：以中美贸易摩擦为背景,应用不完全替代模型,基于中韩两国2011年第一季度到2019年第三季度的样本数据,采用Johanson协整检验和Granger因果检验,分析人民币汇率波动对中韩进出口额的影响。实证结果显示,中韩贸易存在理论上的J曲线效应。短期内,汇率对贸易收支具有恶化作用;长期中,整体存在正向作用。建议从国家层面进一步满足外汇衍生产品的市场需求;丰富外汇市场交易主体;积极推进中日韩自贸区的建立;加强货币互换等金融合作,持续推进人民币国际化进程。从企业层面来看,涉外企业应利用金融工具,规避汇率波动带来的风险;提高核心产品技术,增强国际市场竞争力;根据汇率波动的敏感差异,调整企业购销结构。Under the background of Sino-US trade friction,this paper analyzes the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China and South Korea's import and export value through the incomplete substitution model and Johanson cointegration test and Granger causal relation test,based on the sample data of the two countries from the first quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2019.Empirical results show that Sino-Korean trade has a theoretical J-curve effect.In the short term,the exchange rate has a negative effect on the trade balance,but in the long run,there is a positive effect on the whole.It is suggested to meet the market demand of foreign exchange derivatives further from the national level;enrich the main body of foreign exchange market transactions;promote the establishment of China-Japan-ROK Free Trade Zone actively;strengthen currency swaps and other financial cooperation to promote the process of RMB internationalization.In terms of enterprises,foreign-related enterprises should use financial instruments to avoid the risks brought by exchange rate fluctuations;improve the technology of core products and enhance the competitiveness of international market;adjust purchasing and marketing structure of enterprises according to the sensitive differences in exchange rate fluctuations.

关 键 词：汇率变动 中韩贸易 协整检验 因果关系 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]