基于案例推理的地震应急物资需求预测  

PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE EMERGENCY MATERIALS DEMAND BASED ON CASE-BASED REASONING

作　　者：刘贾贾 李凤[1] 刘龙[1] 马旭东 刘晓丹[1] 刘志辉[1] LIU Jiajia;LI Feng;LIU Long;Ma Xudong;Liu Xiaodan;LIU Zhihui(Hebei Earthquake Agency,Shijiazhuang 050021,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省地震局,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《高原地震》2020年第3期69-74,共6页Plateau Earthquake Research

基　　金：河北省地震科技星火计划项目(DZ20190424075)资助。

摘　　要：目前对应急物资需求量的预测一直处在研究阶段,通过收集历史地震数据并对其进行数据分析,采用熵值法和加权欧式距离求得最佳相似历史案例。根据受灾人口对应急物资的需求量构建了受灾人口—应急物资的案例推理模型,求得了地震应急物资的需求量,验证该方法的有效性。At present,the prediction of emergency material demand is still in the research stage.The historical seismic data was collected and analyzed,using entropy method and weighted Euclidean distance to obtain the best similar historical case,according to the demand of the earthquake-affected population for emergency material,a case-based reasoning model of the earthquake-affected population-emergency materials was constructed,the demand of earthquake emergency materials is obtained,and the validity of this method has been proved by verification.

关 键 词：应急物资 受灾人口 案例推理 熵值法 加权欧式距离 

分 类 号：P315.95[天文地球—地震学]