中部地区崛起的能源需求及碳达峰路径研究  

Energy Demand and Carbon Emission PeakPaths for the Rise of Central China

作　　者：程云鹤[1] 董洪光[1] 耿纪超[1] 何继善[2] Cheng Yunhe;Dong Hongguang;Geng Jichao;He Jishan(School of Economics and Management,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232001,Anhui,China;Central South University,Changsha 410083,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学经济与管理学院,安徽淮南232001 [2]中南大学,长沙410083

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2021年第1期68-78,共11页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：中国工程院咨询项目“推进能源生产和消费革命(2035)--能源革命推动经济社会发展和生态环境保护战略研究”(2018-ZD-11)。

摘　　要：能源革命是经济、社会、环境协调可持续发展的内在要求,其实施需要与地区发展战略相结合,统筹规划、协同发展。本文运用Kaya恒等式,将中部地区崛起的能源消费需求分解为生产性、生活性两部分,考虑中部地区的国内生产总值(GDP)增长、产业结构、城镇化、能源效率、人均收入、生活能源等驱动因素,构建中部地区崛起的能源需求情景,据此分析能源革命背景下的低碳发展路径。结果表明:随着城镇化、工业化发展路径的延续,中部地区5个省份的能源需求量将持续上升,2035年能源需求总量约为8.4×10^8~1.01×10^9 tce;构建多元能源供应体系将助力实现能源清洁低碳安全高效、支持2030年前实现碳排放拐点等目标。针对性提出发展建议:大力发展节能技术、清洁能源技术、可再生能源技术;优化产业结构,构建多能互补体系;加大能源体制改革,实现区域能源共济。Energy revolution is essential for the coordinated and sustainable development of economy,society,and the environment,and it should coordinate with regional development strategies.Using the Kaya identity,this study categorizes the energy consumption demand brought by the rise of Central China into production and living demand.Energy demand scenarios for the rise of Central China are constructed considering factors such as gross domestic product,industrial structure,urbanization,energy efficiency,per capita income,and residential energy.Accordingly,the low-carbon development paths under energy revolution are analyzed.Urbanization and industrialization will promote the total energy demand in the five provinces in Central China up to 8.4×10^8–1.01×10^9 tce in 2035.Moreover,the establishment of a diversified energy supply system can help achieve low-carbon emission,energy security,and efficient utilization of energy;a carbon emission peak is expected to reach before 2030.China should vigorously develop technologies regarding energy conservation and clean and renewable energies.A multi-energy complementary system should be established in China by optimizing the industrial structure,and the existing energy system should be reformed to realize energy cooperation among regions.

关 键 词：能源革命 中部地区崛起 Kaya恒等式 情景分析 碳达峰 

分 类 号：F251[经济管理—国民经济]