参与式渭南地震情景构建:中国地震风险对策的行动研究示范  

THE PARTICIPATORY CONSTRUCTION OF A SEISMIC SCENARIO FOR WEINAN CITY:A PILOT ACTION RESEARCH TO ADDRESS THE IMPROVEMENT OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RISK REDUCTION IN CHINA

作　　者：苏桂武[1] Janise Rodgers 田青[3] 齐文华[1] Philip England Timothy Sim John Young 王东明 李志强 冯希杰[9] 孙磊 陈鲲[11] Emily So Barry Parsons 赵金礼 石建梁[9] 袁志祥[9] Yue Cao 周旗[14] 魏本勇[1] David Milledge Alexander Densmore SU Gui-wu;Janise Rodgers;TIAN Qing;QI Wen-hua;Philip England;Timothy Sim;John Young;WANG Dong-ming;LI Zhi-qiang;FENG Xi-jie;SUN Lei;CHEN Kun;Emily So;Barry Parsons;ZHAO Jin-li;SHI Jian-liang;YUAN Zhi-xiang;Yue Cao;ZHOU Qi;WEI Ben-yong;David Milledge;Alexander Densmore(Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100029,China;GeoHazards International,Menlo Park,California 94025,USA;Faculty of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Department of Earth Sciences,University of Oxford,Oxford OX13AN,UK;Department of Applied Social Sciences,The Hong Kong Polytechnic University,Hong Kong 999077,China;International Network for Advancing Science and Policy(INASP,,International Council for Science(ICSU,,Oxford OX41JE,UK;China Earthquake Disaster Prevention Center,Beijing 100029,China;China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China;Shaanxi Earthquake Agency,Xi′an 710068,China;Center for Crisis Management Research,School of Public Policy and Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100091,China;Department of Architecture,University of Cambridge,Cambridge CB21PX,UK;Overseas Development Institute,London SE18NJ,UK;Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Disasters Monitoring&Mechanism Simulation,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences,Baoji 721013,China;School of Engineering,Newcastle University,Newcastle NE17RU,UK;Department of Geography,Durham University,Durham DH13LE,UK)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029 [2]美国国际地灾,美国门洛帕克94025 [3]北京师范大学环境教育学部,北京100875 [4]牛津大学地球科学系,英国牛津OX13AN [5]香港理工大学应用社会学系,中国香港999077 [6]国际科学理事会(ICSU)科学与政策促进国际网络(INASP),英国牛津OX41JE [7]中国地震灾害防御中心,北京100029 [8]中国地震台网中心,北京100045 [9]陕西省地震局,西安710068 [10]清华大学,公共管理学院/清华大学应急管理研究基地,北京100084 [11]中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京100081 [12]剑桥大学建筑学系,英国剑桥CB21PX [13]英国海外发展研究所,英国伦敦SE18NJ [14]宝鸡文理学院,陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室,宝鸡721013 [15]纽卡斯尔大学,英国纽卡斯尔NE17RU [16]杜伦大学,英国杜伦DH 13LE

出　　处：《地震地质》2020年第6期1446-1473,共28页Seismology and Geology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41661134013);国家自然科学基金(42077442)共同资助;中国地震局重大政策理论与实践问题研究课题(CEAZY2020JZ11)。

摘　　要：中国政府层面自上而下的防震减灾管理卓有成效;但是,对于提升全社会的整体防震减灾能力而言,尚需推动基于此而又有民众与基层自下而上广泛参与的全社会治理模式。为发展这种模式积累经验,渭南市地震情景构建示范项目借助参与式行动研究范式,特别关注了中国防震减灾工作当前存在的以下2点广泛不足:一是社会民众与基层的自下而上办法薄弱,且与政府层面自上而下对策之间的相互衔接与促进不足;二是科学研究向实际减灾对策的转化不足,特别是针对自下而上办法的科学研究与应用转化不足。取得的主要进展有:1)基于广泛参与理念,通过"研究者"和"减灾实践者"、"相关者"、"当事人"2方面人员间的密切合作,共同诊断评估了渭南面临的主要地震灾害风险及隐患、共同提炼了针对性的减灾对策改进建议等,从而使情景构建所得的结果或认识更加可靠、所提对策建议更加符合当地实际需要;借助行动研究过程平台,尝试了风险评估、风险沟通和风险对策改进3大环节的无缝衔接与同步互动,促进了科学研究与实际应用的直接对接与就地转化。2)基于多尺度、多层面视角和同时为"政府"或"部门"与"基层"或"民众"两大类用户服务。在关注改进自上而下对策的同时,针对薄弱的自下而上办法,特别是就这两大对策途径间最广泛与最可持续的接口——宣传教育和家庭、学校、社区减灾,开展了大规模的专项调查分析,梳理了系列化的现今本底与改进方向。3)聚焦改善减灾宣教和促进风险沟通,编创了由"故事"引导的2版内容与形式均有显著差别的地震情景叙事读本:政府版和公众版,以期借助"故事"和艺术呈现"故事"带动人们更好地理解与应用情景构建结果和认识,借助"故事"演绎社会性灾害脆弱成分——"留守儿童家庭与贫困"之于灾害的强化与叠加效应,促进人们�Earthquake disaster reduction approach in China is essentially top-down,which is highly effective in mobilizing large-scale disaster reduction activities.However,the overall resilience of a society to earthquake also heavily depends on actions from various bottom-up components/actors(e.g.,family,community),pointing to the strong need for a governance model that integrates the existing top-down approach with broad bottom-up engagement of grass-roots and the public.To accumulate research evidences for developing that governance,the overall objective of the work of creating a seismic scenario for Weinan City,Shaanxi Province,China(the Weinan scenario work,in short),was thus planned to address in particular the following two major gaps in earthquake disaster risk reduction in China:(i)between top-down and bottom-up earthquake disaster risk reduction(DRR)approaches,with a particular emphasis on the weak bottom-up aspect,and(ii)between science and earthquake DRR policies and practices,especially the insufficiency in the research and associated applications relevant to various bottom-up components/actors.Using the paradigm of trans-disciplinary,participatory action research,the Weinan scenario work delivered this objective through direct interactions and close collaborations between two different groups of people:multi-disciplinary UK-USA-China collaboration research team and various local DRR practitioners and other stakeholders.The overall progresses include:1)Using pan-participatory methodology,the two groups worked closely together to co-identify earthquake risk,co-explore pathways to risk reduction and resilience building,and so on,which ensured the reliability of the scenario results and the local context-appropriateness and then applicability of the scenario work’s DRR recommendations;meanwhile,with action research process,the two groups realized synchronous interactions and seamless connections between the three large aspects in risk science of risk assessment,risk communication,and risk reduction practice imp

关 键 词：地震情景 参与式行动研究 讲故事 自上而下对策与自下而上办法 风险评估与风险对策 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]