相对海平面变化时段选择效应分析  

Influence of Time Period Selection on Determining Relative Sea Level Trends

作　　者：刘聚 暴景阳 许军[3] LIU Ju;BAO Jingyang;XU Jun(Operational Software and Simulation Institute,Dalian Naval Academy,Dalian 116018,China;School of Geodesy and Geomatics,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China;Department of Hydrography and Cartography,Dalian Naval Academy,Dalian 116018,China)

机构地区：[1]海军大连舰艇学院作战软件与仿真研究所,辽宁大连116018 [2]武汉大学测绘学院,湖北武汉430079 [3]海军大连舰艇学院海洋测绘系,辽宁大连116018

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（信息科学版）》2021年第1期79-87,共9页Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41074002,41501500)。

摘　　要：验潮站观测的海面高度数据是监测海平面变化以及确定平均海面的重要基础观测信息,利用滑动时段法和时段累积法对验潮站不同观测时段相对海平面变化速率的差异进行了分析,讨论了时段选择效应对计算相对海平面变化的影响,并利用美国东海岸验潮站观测数据对分析结果进行了补充实验。实验结果表明,不同观测时段相对海平面变化速率差异最大可达27.5 mm/a,相邻年份逐年滑动结果的最大互差可达7.1 mm/a;随着观测时段年数的累积,相对海平面变化速率增加,为了获得0.5 mm/a中误差精度的相对海平面变化速率,验潮站需要的观测年数为22~28 a;而要获得0.2 mm/a中误差精度的相对海平面变化速率,则需要40~54 a的观测年数,这与使用美国验潮站观测数据的补充实验结论一致。The sea level data observed by tide gauge stations are important basic observation information for monitoring sea level change and determining mean sea level.This paper analyzes the difference in relative sea level trends of tide gauges in different observation periods by sliding period method and time period accumulation method,discusses the influence of time period selection on the calculation of relative sea level change,and uses data of tide gauge stations on the east coast of the United States to supplement and verify the analysis results.The experimental results of tide gauges in China show that the maximum difference of relative sea level change rate in different observation periods is 27.5 mm/a,and the maximum difference of annual sliding results in adjacent years is 7.1 mm/a.With the accumulation of years in the observation period,the relative sea level change rate tends to increase at a constant speed,and in order to obtain the relative sea level change rate with the MSE(mean square error) of 0.5 mm/a,the observation years required by the tide gauges are 22-28 years,and the determination of the relative sea level trends with the MSE of0.2 mm/a requires 40-54 years,which is consistent with the supplementary experimental results of tide gauge stations in USA.

关 键 词：相对海平面变化 观测时段 时段选择 验潮站 滑动时段法 时段累积法 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程] P229.2[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]