2021年国内成品油市场分析预测  

Analysis and Forecast on Domestic Refined Oil Market in the Year of 2021

作　　者：孔劲媛[1] 齐超[1] 罗艳托[1] 左洺铭 Kong Jinyuan;Qi Chao;Luo Yantuo;Zuo Mingming(不详)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院

出　　处：《石油规划设计》2021年第1期13-19,24,66,共9页Petroleum Planning & Engineering

摘　　要：2020年国内经济受到新冠肺炎疫情冲击,成品油需求下降,出口受阻,但新增产能持续释放,成品油行业面临严重的供应过剩矛盾。估计2020年国内成品油消费量下跌4.6%,产量同比下降4.1%,消费柴汽比1.11。展望2021年,随着我国经济增长动能加快,成品油需求将呈现同比较快增长态势,预计2021年国内成品油表观消费量3.42×10^(8)t,同比增长6.2%,消费柴汽比下降至1.07。同时,供应过剩矛盾将随着新产能的继续投放而持续扩大,国内产需差预计达到7 000×10^(4) t左右。In 2020,COVID-19-related reductions in economic activity decreased demand for refined oil demand and hindered refined oil export.It was estimated that domestic refined oil consumption dropped by 4.6%with a 4.1%Y-o-Y decline of production and the diesel to gasoline consumption ratio reaching 1.11 in 2020.In addition,refined oil industry was facing a serious contradiction of oversupply with new production capacity put into market continually.In 2021,strong economic growth momentum and fast growth trend of demand for refined oil will increase the demand for refined oil.It prospected apparent consumption of domestic refined oil will reach 342 million tons with a Y-o-Y increase of 6.0%,and diesel to gasoline consumption ratio will drop to 1.07.Meanwhile,the paper estimated the refined oil production oversupply to be 70 million tons.

关 键 词：成品油 消费量 市场 供需 预测 

分 类 号：TE868[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]