日均气温对深圳市居民循环系统疾病死亡影响  

Effect of daily mean temperature on circulatory disease mortality among residents in Shenzhen city

作　　者：练婷玉 付英斌[2] 刘刚[2] 张艳 黄玲凤 徐子茜 黄景晓 曾金妹 梁东梅 尹明娟 倪进东 LIAN Ting-yu;FU Ying-bin;LIU Gang(Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Guangdong Medical Universit,Dongguan,Guangdong Province 523808,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]广东医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学教研室,广东东莞523808 [2]深圳市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2021年第2期337-342,共6页Chinese Journal of Public Health

基　　金：2019年广东大学生科技创新培育专项资金(pdjh2019b0226)。

摘　　要：目的了解日平均气温对居民循环系统疾病死亡影响,为降低气温导致的循环系统疾病死亡风险提供依据。方法利用深圳市2013—2017年气象监测数据和居民循环系统疾病死亡监测资料,采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM),分析日均气温对不同性别、年龄人群循环系统疾病死亡以及对循环系统主要疾病死亡的滞后效应和累积效应。以日均气温中位数(24.7℃)为参照,分别计算高温和低温情况下气温每上升或下降1℃时相对危险度。结果极端高温对于循环系统疾病总死亡及不同性别、年龄人群循环系统疾病死亡和脑血管病、缺血性心脏病死亡的影响均无统计学意义;极端低温显著增加循环系统疾病总死亡(RR=1.603,95 CI%=1.123~2.288)、≥65岁人群(RR=1.706,95 CI%=1.080~2.696)和男性人群(RR=1.800,95 CI%=1.163~2.785)循环系统疾病及脑血管疾病(RR=1.985,95 CI%=1.170~3.434)的死亡风险,但对于女性、<65岁人群循环系统疾病和缺血性心脏病死亡的影响无统计学意义。结论极端低温可增加深圳市居民循环系统疾病死亡风险,且存在滞后效应;在极端低温期间应加强男性、≥65岁人群和脑血管疾病等敏感人群防寒能力,降低由气温导致的循环系统疾病死亡风险。Objective To explore the effect of daily mean temperature on circulatory disease mortality in urban residents and to provide evidences for reducing temperature-related mortality risk of circulatory diseases.Methods The data on circulatory disease mortality among permanent residents of Shenzhen city from January 2013 through December 2017 were collected from death registry system and that on meteorology of the same period were collected simultaneously.The distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was used to analyze delayed and cumulative effect of daily mean temperature on age-,sex-,and major cause-specific circulatory disease mortality.The median daily temperature of 24.7℃was used in estimations of relative risk(RR)of mortality related to temperature variation(up or down)of one degree Celsius.Results No significant correlations were observed between extreme high temperature and total and age-or sex-specific circulatory disease mortality and the mortality of cerebrovascular disease and ischemic heart disease during the period.Extreme low temperature was correlated with significantly increased total mortality of circulatory diseases(RR=1.603,95%confidence interval[95%CI]:1.123–2.288),the circulatory disease mortality in the population over 65 years old(RR=1.706,95%CI:1.080–2.696)and male population(RR=1.800,95%CI:1.163,2.785),and the mortality of cerebrovascular diseases(RR=1.985,95%CI:1.170–3.434);but the associations of extreme low temperature with the mortality of female population,population under 65 years old,and the mortality of ischemic heart disease were not significant.Conclusion Extreme low temperature can increase circulatory disease mortality in a time lag manner among the residents of Shenzhen city;male population and population over 65 years are vulnerable to the affect of extreme low temperature.

关 键 词：日均气温 循环系统疾病死亡 分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM) 

分 类 号：R122.2[医药卫生—环境卫生学]