2008—2020年俄罗斯地方政治态势演变及其影响  

Evolution of Russia's Local Political Situation and Its Influence from 2008 to 2020

作　　者：赖海榕 张小瑛 Lai Hairong;Zhang Xiaoying(不详)

机构地区：[1]福建技术师范学院 [2]福建师范大学马克思主义学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯学刊》2021年第1期43-60,共18页Academic Journal of Russian Studies

摘　　要：2020年1月,普京宣布政治改革初步方案,俄罗斯政治将在联邦层面发生巨大变化。同年9月13日,在俄罗斯地方选举中“统俄党”大获全胜。普京的一系列政治操作——政府重组、宪法修正似乎已初见成效。实际上,俄罗斯政治在地方层面上已经发生许多变化。通过使用python语言自编程序从俄罗斯中央选举委员会的官方网站抓取相关数据,本文研究了从2008年至2020年的情况,发现普京及“统俄党”在地方政治中的支持度明显不如在联邦中央,自2018年以来其他党派赢得一些地方选举的趋势仍在延续甚至加强,但“统俄党”在地方的表现未直接影响到联邦层级。从政治、经济、民生角度解读俄罗斯地方与中央政治态势的显著差异十分重要。未来俄罗斯存在普京续任总统或“统俄党”顺利推出新人执行类似普京政策的可能,但也不能排除“统俄党”落选反对派上台的可能性。俄罗斯政局的下一个重要观察点是2021年第八届国家杜马选举。In January 2020,Putin announced a preliminary plan for political reform.Significant changes will take place in Russian politics at the federal level.On September 13 of the same year,the"United Russia"won the local elections,which means Putin's political operations,including government reshuffle and constitutional amendment,seem to have achieved initial results.In fact,many changes have taken place in Russian politics at the local level.Based on the data from the official website of the Russian Central Election Commission,this article studies the situation of Russia's local political situation and found that Putin and the"United Russia"enjoy less pubic support at the local level.The trend that other parties could win some local elections since 2018 has continued or even strengthened,but the performance of the"United Russia"in the local elections has not directly affected the federal level.Hence,how to interpret the significant differences between Russia's local and central political situation from the perspective of politics,economy,and people's livelihood is very significant.In the future,it is possible that Putin will continue to serve as president or the"United Russia"may introduce a new person that continues to implement Putin's policies.But the possibility that a new party will come into power cannot be ruled out.For Russia's political situation,the next important observation point is the State Duma election in 2021.

关 键 词：俄罗斯地方选举 政治态势 “统一俄罗斯”党 

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