基于回归树模型的郑州市成人饮水摄入量影响因素分析  

Regression tree analysis of adult drinking water intake,Zhengzhou City

作　　者：高圣华[1] 郑天柱[2] 祝刚[3] 叶必雄[1] 张岚 GAO Sheng-hua;ZHENG Tian-zhu;ZHU Gang;YE Bi-xiong;ZHANG Lan(National Institute of Environmental Health,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100050,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所,北京100050 [2]郑州市疾病预防控制中心 [3]河南省疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2021年第3期430-434,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2014ZX07405001);水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2018ZX0752001)。

摘　　要：目的了解郑州市成人饮水摄入量的情况,为饮水暴露健康风险评价提供本地化参数。方法利用问卷结合日志的调查方法在郑州市开展成人居民饮用水摄入量调查,获得饮水摄入量相关暴露参数。采用分类回归树等方法对饮水摄入量影响因素进行分析。结果郑州市成人居民只喝开水或以开水为主(97.5%),饮水水源主要为自来水(74.0%)。饮水摄入量中位数为1 879 ml,以直接摄入(1 214 ml)为主。夏季(2 053 ml)高于冬季(1 680 ml)。夏季和冬季饮水摄入量受性别、年龄和BMI等多种因素影响。结论在进行污染物暴露健康风险评价时应综合考虑各因素的影响,根据实际情况选取针对性的参数。Objective To acquire the drinking water intake of adults in Zhengzhou City, and to provide localization parameters for local health risk assessment of drinking water exposure. Methods The drinking water intake of adult residents in Zhengzhou City was investigated by questionnaire survey and self-filling log, and the related exposure parameters of drinking water intake were obtained. Regression tree was used for the analysis of influencing factors of drinking water intake. Results The adult residents in Zhengzhou City only drank boiled water or mainly boiled water(97.5%), and tap water was the main source of drinking water(74.0%). The median intake of drinking water was 1 879 ml, which was mainly direct intake(1 214 ml). It was higher in summer(2 053 ml) than that in winter(1 680 ml). Drinking water intake was affected by many factors such as gender, age and BMI. Conclusion In health risk assessment of pollutant exposure, we should comprehensively consider the influence of each factor, and select specific parameters according to the actual situation.

关 键 词：暴露参数 饮水摄入量 成人 回归树 

分 类 号：R155.1[医药卫生—营养与食品卫生学]