基于不同背景场条件的雷达资料同化在登陆台风“桑美”中的应用研究  

Experiment of assimilating Doppler radar data in Typhoon Saomai based on the different initial conditions

作　　者：沈菲菲[1,2,3] 唐超 许冬梅 李泓[5] 刘瑞霞 Shen Feifei;Tang Chao;Xu Dongmei;Li Hong;Liu Ruixia(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610225,China;The Institute of Atmospheric Environment,China Meteorological Administration,Shenyang 110166,China;Weixi Meteorological Bureau,Weixi 674600,China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai 200030,China;National Satellite Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044 [2]高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川成都610225 [3]中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳110166 [4]云南省维西傈僳族自治县气象局,云南维西674400 [5]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030 [6]国家卫星气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《海洋学报》2021年第1期69-81,共13页

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(G41805070,G41805016);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1506404,2018YFC1506603);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室开放研究基金项目(SZKT201901,SZKT201904);中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所和东北冷涡研究重点开放实验室联合开放基金课题项目(2020SYIAE07,2020SYIAE02)。

摘　　要：本文针对2006年登陆我国的超强台风“桑美”,分别采用美国国家环境预报中心的全球预报系统(Global Forecasting System,GFS)再分析资料和日本气象厅(Japan Meteorological Agency,JMA)区域客观再分析资料作为背景场,利用中尺度数值模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)及其三维变分同化系统进行多普勒雷达资料同化和数值模拟试验,考察不同的背景场条件下雷达资料同化对台风初始场、内部结构及其随后确定性预报的影响。结果表明:GFS试验和JMA试验在同化了雷达资料之后分析出的台风700 hPa风场和500 hPa高度场相比其初始场均有所增强,JMA试验在3 h同化窗内的均方根误差和最小海平面气压的改进效果均比GFS试验显著,同时对台风动力和热力结构的改进效果也优于GFS试验;JMA试验对台风降水、路径、强度的预报均优于GFS试验,且能预报出台风前沿的降水,更加接近观测实况。Based on the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation system,the numerical simulation and Doppler radar data assimilation are conducted with the data of GFS(Global Forecasting System)and JMA(Japan Meteorological Agency)reanalyses as the initial conditions respectively.The impact of assimilation radar data in different background fields on the initial typhoon field,internal structure and forecast were investigated based on the super typhoon case Saomai in 2006.The results show that,both experiments with GFS and JMA data are able to enhance the typhoon initial winds field at 700 hPa and geopotential height field at 500 hPa after assimilating radar observations.The improvements in terms of the root-meansquare error during the 3 h during the data assimilation cycling,the minimum sea level pressure,and the thermal and dynamic structure from the JMA tests are more significant than that with GFS data.The forecast skills for the precipitation,the typhoon track,and the intensity are also noticeable with JMA data by correctly predicting the precipitation location in the front of typhoon.

关 键 词：背景场 资料同化 WRF模式 雷达径向风 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]