基于LEAP模型的广州交通领域能耗及空气污染物排放分析  

Analysis of Energy Consumption and Air Pollutant Emission in Guangzhou Transportation Field Based on LEAP Model

作　　者：杨森 黄莹[1,2,3] 焦建东[1,2,3,4] 廖翠萍 YANG Sen;HUANG Ying;JIAO Jian-dong;LIAO Cui-ping(Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510640,China;CAS Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy,Guangzhou 510640,China;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of New and Renewable Energy Research and Development,Guangzhou 510640,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院广州能源研究所,广州510640 [2]中国科学院可再生能源重点实验室,广州510640 [3]广东省新能源和可再生能源研究开发与应用重点实验室,广州510640 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《新能源进展》2021年第1期69-75,共7页Advances in New and Renewable Energy

基　　金：能源基金会赠款项目(G-1811-28739)。

摘　　要：基于长期能源替代规划系统(LEAP)模型,结合情景分析法,模拟广州交通领域未来的能耗及CO、HC、NOx、PM2.5、SO2等主要空气污染物排放趋势,分析广州交通领域的节能及空气污染物排放控制策略。结果表明:综合情景下,到2035年,广州交通领域将较基准情景节能23.06%,CO、HC、NOx、PM2.5、SO2分别减排30.05%、28.31%、27.86%、23.77%、16.33%;各子情景中,能源结构优化情景的节能减排贡献最大;从运输类型来看,公路货运、私人交通、公路客运、水路货运和航空客运的节能减排贡献较大;要实现城市交通能耗及污染物排放控制,需要大力发展公共交通,促进铁路和水路运输的发展,以部分分流私人交通、公路和航空运输的交通需求增长,同时提高能源清洁化率和能效水平。Based on Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP)model and scenario analysis method,the future energy consumption and emission trends of major air pollutants such as CO,HC,NOx,PM2.5 and SO2 in the transportation field of Guangzhou were simulated this paper,and the energy saving and air pollutant emission control strategies in Guangzhou transportation field were analyzed.The results showed as follows:under the comprehensive scenario,by 2035,Guangzhou’s transportation sector will save 23.06%energy consumption compared with the Business as Usual(BAU)scenario,and the emissions of CO,HC,NOx,PM2.5 and SO2 decreased by 30.05%,28.31%,27.86%,23.77%and 16.33%respectively;among the sub scenarios,the energy structure optimization scenario has the largest contribution to energy saving and emissions reduction;in terms of transport types,road freight,private transport,highway passenger transport,waterway freight transport and air passenger transport contribute more to energy saving and emissions reduction;in order to realize the control of urban traffic energy consumption and pollutant emissions,it is necessary to develop public transportation,promote the development of railway transportation and waterway transportation,partially divert the growth of traffic demand of private transportation,highway transportation and air transportation,and promote the cleanliness of energy structure and the energy efficiency.

关 键 词：LEAP模型 情景分析 节能 污染物减排 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]