发展战略与高储蓄率之谜——一个新结构储蓄理论假说与经验分析  

Development Strategy and the Puzzle of High Savings Rate:A Hypothesis on New Structural Saving Theory and Empirical Analysis

作　　者：付才辉 郑洁 林毅夫[1] Fu Caihui;Zheng Jie;Lin Yifu(Institute of New Structural Economics,Peking University;Institute of New Structural Economics,Nanchang University)

机构地区：[1]北京大学新结构经济学研究院,100871 [2]南昌大学新结构经济学研究院 [3]北京大学国家发展研究院,100871

出　　处：《经济评论》2021年第1期49-67,共19页Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“新结构经济学的视角下新常态经济发展的动力与机制研究”(项目编号:15CJL025);中国博士后基金项目“环境保护、经济增长与发展战略:新结构经济学视角”(项目编号:2020M670001)资助;第十二届中华发展经济学年会优秀论文一等奖的鼓励。

摘　　要：中国的高储蓄和高投资现象长期以来备受国内外学界和政策界的关注,但也备受流行思潮的"诟病"。然而,高储蓄率和高投资率却是二战后发展典范的特征事实之一,主流理论难以给出一般性的解释,各种求助于特殊因素的解释又缺乏理论一般性而经不起推敲,遂被称为"高储蓄率之谜"。本文提出了一个新结构储蓄理论假说:如果一个经济体的结构变迁遵循由其禀赋结构所决定的比较优势,那么其可供储蓄和投资的经济剩余将最大,储蓄与投资的边际回报率最大,储蓄倾向和投资倾向最大,总的储蓄率也就越高;反之,则相反。来自跨国和省际的经验分析支持上述新结构储蓄理论的基本假说。这个假说也是新结构资本积累理论的主要内涵:通过比较优势发展战略实现高储蓄高投资,进而提升禀赋结构促进生产结构升级,是经济发展最重要的机制。The high saving rate and high investment rate in China have long been not only concerned by domestic and foreign researchers and politicians,but also criticized by the popular thoughts.The phenomena are known as"high saving rate mystery",for they are the characteristics of post-war development models,but main theories cannot give a general explanation;other explanations seeking for special factors all lack theoretical generality.This paper puts forward a hypothesis on new structural saving theory:If an economy’s structure change follows its comparative advantage,which is decided by its endowment structure,it will have the largest economic surplus for saving and investment,the largest marginal returns of savings and investment,the strongest inclination for saving and investment,and the highest total saving rate.Empirical analyses from transnational and provincial levels support the above hypothesis.This hypothesis is also the main connotation of new structural capital accumulation theory:The most important channel for economic development is following comparative advantage to achieve high saving rate and high investment rate,to promote endowment structure,and to upgrade production structure.

关 键 词：储蓄率 结构变迁 资本积累 新结构储蓄理论 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F832.22