光纤网络规模对农村非农就业的拉动效应  

Pulling Effect of the Scale of Optical Fiber Network on Rural Non-agricultural Employment

作　　者：李卓[1,2] 封立涛 Li Zhuo;Feng Litao(Center for Economic Development Research,Wuhan University;Economics and Management School,Wuhan University)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济发展研究中心,430070 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院,430070

出　　处：《经济评论》2021年第1期96-111,共16页Economic Review

基　　金：教育部重点研究基地重大招标课题“城乡协调发展背景下现代农业发展道路的国际比较研究”(项目编号:16JJD790045)资助。

摘　　要：本文在城乡统筹背景下构建三部门就业选择模型分析在光纤规模达到门槛后农村居民在城乡间的就业选择,并基于2000—2019年省级面板数据进行实证分析,检验光纤规模对以个体就业为代表的农村非农就业的促进作用以及是否具有门槛效应。研究发现:光纤规模对于农村非农就业具有显著拉动作用,且这一效果具有显著的门槛效应,其门槛值为0.23 km/km^2;同时,光纤规模与农村非农就业之间存在反向因果关系,直接进行OLS回归会低估光纤规模的影响;最后光纤规模对农村非农就业的影响依赖于农村人力资本的积累,并且光纤规模还对其他影响农村非农就业的因素存在门槛效应。因此本文建议继续完善经济发展落后地区的光缆铺设和其他基础设施建设,并大力发展农村教育。Under the background of urban and rural coordination,this paper constructs a threesector model to analyze the employment choices of farmers between urban and rural areas after the optical fiber scale reaches a threshold.It uses the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2019 to study the effect of optical fiber scale on rural non-agricultural employment and whether this effect has a threshold.The result show that optical fiber scale has a significant,threshold pulling effect on rural non-agricultural employment,with a threshold value of 0.23 km/km^2.Besides,a reverse causality exists between optical fiber scale and rural non-agricultural employment,therefore OLS regression will underestimate the impact of optical fiber scale.Finally,the impact depends on the accumulation of rural human capital,and optical fiber scale also has threshold effects on other factors affecting rural non-agricultural employment.Therefore,this article proposes to continue to improve the laying of optical cables and other infrastructure construction in areas with backward economic development,and vigorously develop rural education.

关 键 词：光纤规模 农村非农就业 门槛效应 城乡统筹 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济] F249.2F623