我国房价的货币因素与宏观影响的动态传导研究——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的分析  

Research on the Dynamic Transmission of Monetary Factors and Macro Effects of House Prices in China——An Analysis Based on TVP-SV-VAR Model

作　　者：李凯[1] 樊明太[1,2] 叶思晖 Li Kai;Fan Mingtai;Ye Sihui(University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100005,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学,北京102488 [2]中国社会科学院,北京100005

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2021年第1期29-37,共9页Journal Of Financial Development Research

基　　金：中国社会科学院创新工程项目“大数据机器学习方法在政策评估中的应用”(IQTE2020-04);2020年中国社会科学院大学(研究生院)研究生科研创新支持计划项目“我国多种宏观审慎政策的有效性研究”(2020-KY-046)。

摘　　要：我国房地产和金融市场发展使房价进入到货币政策传导渠道中,房价与货币政策中介变量、宏观目标变量间的关系呈动态变动。本文通过TVP-SV-VAR模型研究发现:与M2和信贷相比,社会融资规模与房价的关系更稳定,且对彼此波动的反应更强;近些年房价波动对产出、物价波动的边际效应减弱,对金融稳定的影响仍较大,房价对外部因素波动的敏感性有所降低。建议国家应坚持稳定房价的总基调,把好货币供给闸门,合理管控社会融资规模增量,加强房地产各项融资监管;各地方政府应根据本地人口流入和住房库存等实际情况,合理推进房地产业发展,在发挥其积极作用的同时,防范区域金融风险。With the development of real estate and financial market in China,house price has entered into the transmission channel of monetary policy.The relationship between house price and intermediate variables of monetary policy and macro target variable changes dynamically.Through TVP-SV-VAR model,it is found that:compared with M2 and credit,the relationship between social financing scale and housing price is more stable,and each other has a stronger response to the other's volatility;in recent years,the marginal effect of house price fluctuation on output and price fluctuation is weakened,while the impact on financial stability is still greater,and the sensitivity of house price to external factors is reduced.Some suggestions are put forward as follows:the state should adhere to the general tone of stabilizing house prices,hold the gate of money supply,properly control the increase of social financing scale and strengthen the supervision of real estate financing;local governments should reasonably promote the development of real estate industry according to the actual situation of local population inflow and housing inventory,and prevent regional financial risks while playing its positive role.

关 键 词：房地产价格 社会融资规模 贝叶斯估计 边际效应 TVP-SV-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F832.0[经济管理—金融学]