世界游泳锦标赛男女个人混合泳项目成绩发展态势及灰色预测研究  

Research on Developing Trend and Grey Prediction of Men's and Women's Individual Medley in the World Swimming Championships

作　　者：徐振 温宇红[1] XU Zhen;WEN Yu-hong(Beijing Sport University, Beijing 100084, China)

机构地区：[1]北京体育大学,北京100084

出　　处：《浙江体育科学》2021年第2期50-56,共7页Zhejiang Sport Science

摘　　要：为深入了解世界混合泳项目的发展趋势,促进我国混合泳项目的进一步突破,文章运用文献资料法、数理统计法、比较分析法、灰色预测法,对第1至第18届世界游泳锦标赛男女个人混合泳成绩发展态势及变化特征进行分析。运用灰色预测模型对第19届世界游泳锦标赛男女200m及400m个人混合泳项目第1名成绩进行预测。研究结果表明:世界游泳锦标赛男女200m及400m个人混合泳成绩的整体发展平衡且均呈现提高趋势,其中女子200m个人混合泳成绩提高幅度最大,男子400m个人混合泳成绩提高幅度最小;第13届世锦赛后,男女混合泳项目整体成绩均表现出不同幅度的下降;世界游泳锦标赛男女200m及400m个人混合泳成绩的变化趋势不同,其中,男女200m个人混合泳届内竞争逐渐加大,即前8名成绩差距逐渐缩小,男子400m个人混合泳次之,女子则相反;近年来,我国选手在混合泳项目中国际竞争力较强,与世界顶尖运动员差距不断缩小,男子200m个人混合泳为第19届世锦赛重点夺金项目;第19届世界游泳锦赛男女个人混合泳项目第1名成绩的预测值为:男女200m个人混合泳分别为1min 56s17、2min08s30,400m个人混合泳分别为4min08s24、4min29s85。In order to deeply understand the development trend of the world medley event and promote the further breakthrough of our country's medley event,this article uses the method of literature data,mathematical statistics,comparative analysis and grey prediction method to compare the 1st to 18th World Swimming Championships The development trend and change characteristics of individual medley performances of men and women are analyzed.The grey prediction model is used to predict the first place results of the men’s and women’s 200 and 400 meters individual medley in the 19th World Swimming Championships.The study results show that the overall development of the men’s and women’s 200-meter and 400-meter individual medley performances at the World Swimming Championships is balanced and shows an improvement trend.Among them,the women’s 200-meter individual medley performance has increased the most and the men’s 400-meter individual medley performance has increased the least;After the 13th World Championships,the overall performance of the men’s and women’s medley events showed varying degrees of decline;the men’s and women’s 200m and 400m individual medley performances at the World Swimming Championships had different trends.Among them,the men’s and women’s 200m individual medley competition gradually It means that the performance gap between the top 8 is gradually narrowing,followed by men’s 400-meter individual medley,while women’s individual medleys are the next.The 200-meter individual medley is the key gold event in the 19th World Swimming Championships;the first place in the men’s and women’s individual medley at the 19th World Swimming Championships is predicted to be:men’s and women’s 200-meter individual medleys are 1min56s17 and 2min08s30 respectively,the 400-meter individual medley is 4min08s24 and 4min29s85 respectively.

关 键 词：世界游泳锦标赛 游泳 个人混合泳 成绩 灰色预测 

分 类 号：G861.1[文化科学—体育训练]