“群体性崛起”背景下霸权国的威胁评估研究  

Threat Assessment of Hegemony under the Background of “Collective Rising”

作　　者：游启明 You Qiming

机构地区：[1]浙江海洋大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《印度洋经济体研究》2020年第6期36-58,155,156,共25页Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅2020年度人文社科青年科技人才“育苗项目”:“认知心理学视域下的‘人类命运共同体’思想研究”(项目编号:2020JYT35)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在"群体性"崛起背景下,霸权国的利益与崛起国的行为是决定霸权国威胁评估的核心变量。既有研究聚焦于"个体性崛起"背景下霸权国与崛起国互动,却忽视了面对多个崛起国的"群体性"崛起时,霸权国如何评估战略威胁从而选取最大威胁者的问题。霸权国的威胁评估要经历三个战略阶段:首先,霸权国会对自身的利益按重要性进行排序;其次,识别崛起国的行为;最后,霸权国会把第一阶段所划定的利益与第二阶段识别的行为进行对比,将严重危害自身利益的崛起国视为主要威胁者。一战前英国维护霸权地位的威胁评估的案例,揭示了把霸权国的利益与崛起国的行为作为霸权国威胁评估的核心变量,不仅有利于国际关系理论的积累性研究;也有助于在特朗普政府将中国视作战略竞争对手背景下,映照中国强国复兴战略的实践。In the context of"collective rising",the interests of the hegemony and the behavior of the rising powers are the core variables that determine the threat assessment of the hegemony. Existing research focuses on the interaction between hegemonic powers and rising power in the context of "individual rise",but ignores the question of how hegemonic power evaluate strategic threats and select the greatest threat when facing" the rise of groups". The threat assessment of a hegemonic power goes through three strategic stages. Firstly,the hegemony ranks its own interests in order of importance;secondly,it identifies the behavior of the rising powers;finally,the hegemonic power compares the interests defined in the first phase with the behaviors identified in the second phases,and the rising power that seriously endangers its own interests is treated as the main threat. The case of Britain’s threat assessment of maintaining its hegemony before the First World War reveals that the interests of the hegemony and the behavior of the rising powers are the core variables of the threat assessment of the hegemony. This research is not only conducive to the cumulative research of international relations theory;but also helpful to China’s strategy of rejuvenation in the context of Trump government regarding China as strategic competitor.

关 键 词：群体性崛起 威胁评估 霸权国利益 崛起国行为 英德关系 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]