“双重冲击”下的朝鲜半岛新博弈  

The New Game Between the Parties on the Korean Peninsula under the“Double Impact”of COVID-19 and China-US Competition

作　　者：郑继永[1] 牛笑 Zheng Ji-yong;Niu Xiao(Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学,上海200433 [2]上海大学,上海200444

出　　处：《外语学刊》2021年第1期29-34,共6页Foreign Language Research

基　　金：2020年上海市政府委托项目“朝鲜问题在大国博弈中的作用”的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：新冠肺炎大流行与中美竞争对朝鲜半岛造成双重冲击。新环境、旧难题的冲撞将带来新的变数,也进一步增加解决问题的难度。朝鲜面临防疫、经济恢复和民生3个方面的问题,其对于朝鲜半岛问题与美国的态度与措施也在变化。韩国在外交上面临着多个方向的夹击。朝鲜半岛各方的博弈将出现新的平台。新冠疫情与中美竞争作为朝鲜半岛最大的两个外部因素与新引入变量,其影响已经远大于常规性背景变量,即中美日俄等传统地缘力量。围绕这一双重冲击,朝鲜与韩国的应对与互动将会左右未来朝鲜半岛新的安全水平。The COVID-19 pandemic and China-US competition have had a double impact on the Korean Peninsula.The collision of new environment and old problems will bring new variables and further increase the difficulty of solving problems.The DPRK faces three problems:epidemic prevention,economic recovery and people’s livelihood,and its attitude and measures towards the Ko-rean Peninsula issue and the United States are also changing.South Korea is facing the attack from many directions in diplomacy.There will be a new platform for the game between the parties on the Korean Peninsula.As the two biggest external factors and newly introduced variables on the Korean Peninsula,the COVID-19 epidemic and China-US competition have far greater influence than conventional background variables,namely,traditional geographical forces such as China,the United States,Japan and Russia.Around this double impact,the response from and interaction between the DPRK and South Korea will determine the new security level of the Korean Peninsula in the future.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎大流行 中美竞争 双重冲击 朝鲜半岛博弈 

分 类 号：H0-0[语言文字—语言学]