水资源承载力系统动力学模拟及研究  

Simulation of water resources carrying capacity based on system dynamics

作　　者：徐凯莉 吕海深[1,2] 朱永华 XU Kaili;Lü Haishen;ZHU Yonghua(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2020年第6期67-72,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402703);国家自然科学基金项目(41830752、42071033、41961134003)。

摘　　要：为响应国家可持续发展战略,预测了周口市水资源承载力的发展趋势,为当地水资源问题寻求科学的解决办法。采取系统动力学技术搭建模型,模拟预测了周口市2018-2030年水资源承载力的动态变化。该模型设置了现状延续、节水、开源、开源节流4种情景以及不同的节水和调水方案,比较不同情景下的变化趋势。结果显示开源节流方案最优,其次则是节水型情景中的综合节水方案。因此,注重节水,尤其是提高农业用水效率,能够在很大程度上降低周口市的用水压力。调水和节水两项政策双管齐下,更能够有效提高周口市水资源承载力。In response to the strategy of sustainable development of our country,we carried out the prediction analysis of water resources carrying capacity( WRCC) for Zhoukou City,in order to find a scientific solution for the local water resources problems. System dynamics technique was employed to the modelling of the WRCC of Zhoukou City to simulate and predict its dynamic changes from 2018 to 2030.Four scenarios of maintaining the status quo,saving water,finding new resource,the combination of saving water and finding new resource were established with the model under different water-saving and water diversion schemes,and then the corresponding changing trends under different scenarios were compared. The results show that the optimal solution is the combination of saving water and finding new resource,followed by the comprehensive water-saving scheme in the scenario of saving water. Therefore,paying attention to water-saving,especially agricultural water,can greatly reduce the demand for water in Zhoukou City. Two policies of water diversion and water-saving can effectively improve the WRCC of Zhoukou City.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 系统动力学法 预测模型 节水 周口市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]