基于统计分析的最优救援井数量及救援成功率研究  

RESEARCH ON THE NUMBER OF OPTIMAL RELIEF WELLS AND RESCUE SUCCESS RATE BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

作　　者：张森 刁斌斌 高德利[1,2] ZHANG Sen;DIAO Binbin;GAO Deli(MOE Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102249,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学石油工程教育部重点实验室 [2]中国科学院

出　　处：《钻采工艺》2020年第6期1-4,I0001,共5页Drilling & Production Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目“复杂油气井钻井与完井基础研究”(51821092)和重点项目“页岩和致密油气田高效开发建井基础研究”(U1762214);国家科技重大专项课题“复杂结构井、丛式井设计与控制新技术”(2017ZX05009-003)

摘　　要：钻井平台发生井喷、爆炸等事故,如果不能在短时间内完成封堵救援作业,将造成巨大的经济损失和严重的环境污染。为实现在有限的救援条件下用最短的时间完成封堵救援作业,根据统计学原理,基于“骰子游戏”建立“时间-累积封堵成功率”模型,分析了尝试封堵次数、连通工具的性能(封堵成功率)、平均钻井时间、救援井数量、救援井的启动时间对累积封堵成功率的影响。另外,结合“深水地平线”事件的救援方案验证了该模型的实用性。研究表明,针对不同的井喷事故类型,“时间-累积封堵成功率”模型能够结合现场的基础设备、人力资源及关键技术等条件推算出最合理的救援井数量和救援井的启动时间,为制定救援井方案提供理论支持。When an accident such as a blowout or explosion occurs on the drilling platform,if the rescue operation cannot be completed in a short time,it will cause huge economic losses and serious environmental pollution.In order to achieve the rescue operation in the shortest time under limited rescue conditions,according to the statistical principle,this paper establishes the“time-cumulative plugging success rate”model based on“Dice Game”.The effects of the number of attempts to plug,the performance of the connected tools(blocking success rate),the average drilling time,the number of relief wells,and the start-up time of the relief wells on the cumulative plugging success rate were analyzed.In addition,the practicality of the model was verified by a rescue plan combined with the“Deepwater Horizon”event.Studies have shown that for different types of accidents,the“time-cumulative plugging success rate”model can be combined with on-site basic equipment,human resources and key technologies to derive the most reasonable number of relief wells and start-up time for relief wells.Theoretical support is provided by an optimal rescue plan.

关 键 词：救援井数量 救援成本 救援成功率 统计分析 “骰子游戏” “时间-累积封堵成功率” 

分 类 号：TE28[石油与天然气工程—油气井工程]