华东地区电动汽车发展趋势及用电需求预测  

Electric vehicle development trends and electricity demand forecast in East China

作　　者：姚颖蓓 陆建忠 傅业盛 薛季良[2] 朱倍婵 YAO Yingbei;LU Jianzhong;FU Yesheng;XUE Jiliang;ZHU Beichan(State Grid East China Branch,Shanghai 200120,China;East China Electric Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200120,China;School of Economic,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]国家电网华东分部,上海200120 [2]华东电力设计院,上海200120 [3]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2021年第4期141-145,共5页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题(2019BJL011)。

摘　　要：对2020-2040年华东地区电动汽车用电需求进行预测。首先对华东地区电动汽车保有量进行预估,然后利用平均用电量法和油耗计算法分别预测电动汽车的用电耗能情况。最后分情景对电动汽车引起的用电负荷进行预测。结果显示,华东地区电动汽车保有量2020-2030年快速增长,年均增长率为79.11%,2040年达到3720万辆。电动汽车引起的用电需求2020年、2030年和2040年分别为7 TWh、132 TWh和198 TWh,年均增长率从24.60%降至4.11%,2020-2040年整体年均增长率超过18%。2040年电动汽车年均用电负荷增长率为2.27%,最低负荷为41859 MW,最高负荷为93021 MW。This paper forecasts the demand for electric vehicles in East China from 2020-2040.First,the number of electric vehicles in East China is estimated,and then the average electricity consumption and fuel consumption calculation methods are used to predict their electricity consumption.The consumption caused by the rising demand for electric vehicles is predicted.The results show that the number of electric vehicles in East China will show rapid growth from 2020 to 2030,with an average annual growth rate of 79.11%,reaching 37.2 million by 2040.The electricity demand caused by electric vehicles will be 7,132 and 198 TW·h in 2020,2030 and 2040,respectively,and the average annual growth rate will drop from 24.6%to 4.11%.The average annual growth rate from 2020 to 2040 exceeds 18%.In 2040,the average annual growth rate of electric load for electric vehicles will be 2.27%,with a minimum load of 41859 MW and a maximum load of 93021 MW.

关 键 词：华东地区 电动汽车 用电需求 用电负荷 智能电网 

分 类 号：F426.471[经济管理—产业经济] F426.61