黄河中游河龙区间径流量变化趋势及其归因  

The trend of runoff change and its attribution in the middle reaches of the Yellow River

作　　者：宁怡楠 杨晓楠 孙文义 穆兴民[1,4] 高鹏[1,4] 赵广举[1,4] 宋小燕[5] NING Yi-nan;YANG Xiao-nan;SUN Wen-yi;MU Xing-min;GAO Peng;ZHAO Guang-ju;SONG Xiao-yan(Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,CAS and Ministry of Water Resources,Yangling 712100,Shaanxi,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Mountain Areas Research Institute of Hebei Province,Agricultural University of Hebei,Baoding 071001,Hebei,China;State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,Shaanxi,China;College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室,杨凌712100 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]河北农业大学河北省山区研究所,保定071001 [4]西北农林科技大学土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室,杨凌712100 [5]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,杨凌712100

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2021年第1期256-269,共14页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402401)。

摘　　要：黄河水沙变化关乎黄河流域生态安全和全流域的高质量发展。近年来黄河水量出现大幅锐减,制约了当地社会经济和下游可持续发展。量化气候变化和人类活动对径流量减少的贡献对于解析黄河水沙变化动因具有重要意义。由于研究尺度和研究方法的不同,径流量变化的因素和影响程度存在较大差异。本文采用MK趋势检验和双累积曲线法系统分析黄河中游河龙区间四个典型流域(皇甫川、窟野河、无定河、延河)1960—2015年间水文要素的变化趋势,利用Budyko水热平衡方程阐明气候变化和人类活动对流域径流变化的作用。结果表明:1960—2015年皇甫川、窟野河、无定河、延河流域径流量均显著下降(P<0.01),且径流量均在1979年和1999年前后发生突变,而降水量变化不显著。同基准期(1960—1979年)相比,P2时期(1980—1999年)气候变化对径流减少的贡献率达64%~76%;随着退耕还林还草工程的大规模实施,P3时期(2000—2015年)人类活动成为径流减少的主要影响因素,其贡献率达71%~88%。Changes in the water and sediments of the Yellow River are associated with ecosystem security and quality development throughout the basin. It is of great significance to quantify the contribution of climate change and human activities to the reduction of runoff in order to analyze the causes of water and sediment changes in the Yellow River. Due to different research scales and research methods, the factors and influence degree of runoff variation vary greatly. Therefore, based on the same time scale, this paper uses MK trend test and Double Mass Curve method to systematically analyze the changing trend of hydrological elements in four typical basins(Huangfuchuan, Kuye River, Wuding River and Yanhe River) in the middle reaches of the Yellow River from 1960 to 2015. The Budyko water heat balance equation is used to clarify the role of climate change and human activities in the water and sediment change of the basin. The results showed that the runoffs in Huangfuchuan, Kuye River, Wuding River and Yanhe River basins all decreased significantly from 1960 to 2015(P<0.01), and the runoffs in 1979 and 1999 experienced sudden changes without significant variations in precipitation. Compared with the base period(1960-1979), the contribution rate of climate change to runoff reduction in the P2 period(1980-1999) reached 64%-76%;with the largescale implementation of the project of returning farmland to forestland and grassland, human activities in the P3 period(2000-2015) have become the main influencing factor leading to runoff reduction, with a contribution rate of 71%-88%.

关 键 词：河龙区间 径流量 气候变化 人类活动 Budyko方程 弹性系数 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]